气候变化下流域安全新挑战:从水库群韧性调度到智能大坝体系构建

    New challenges to watershed security under climate change: from resilient operation of reservoir groups to construction of an intelligent dam system

    • 摘要: 全球气候变化导致极端水文事件频发,对我国流域防洪、供水、能源与生态安全构成系统性威胁,传统水利调度运行与安全管理模式面临严峻挑战。针对极端水文事件下流域治理的核心矛盾,系统分析了水库群多目标协同与系统韧性提升等方面面临的挑战,提出以“安全-生态-智能”三位一体为引领,明确了水库群防洪、汛期前后、兴利优化的多目标调度逻辑,推动从单一工程调度向流域水库群韧性协同调度转变,构建以“天空地水工”一体化监测感知体系和数字孪生平台为核心的智能决策体系,并通过数字孪生等智能技术打造新一代智能大坝体系,实现从预报预警到多目标优化调度的全链条智慧化管理,为流域水库群高水平安全与可持续发展提供战略路径和关键技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: Frequent extreme hydrological events caused by global climate change pose a systemic threat to flood control, water supply, energy, and ecological security in China′s river basins, placing the traditional water conservancy operation and safety management model under severe challenges. Addressing the core contradictions in river basin governance amid extreme hydrological events, this paper systematically analyzes the challenges in reservoir group operation such as multi-objective coordination and system resilience enhancement. It proposes a guiding framework centered on the "safety-ecology-intelligence" trinity, clarifies the multi-objective operation logic for flood control of reservoir groups, pre- and post-flood periods, and beneficial operation optimization, which aims to promote the transformation from single-project operation to resilient and coordinated operation of river basin reservoir groups. Additionally, the paper advocates to build an intelligent decision-making system consisted of the "space-air-ground-water-engineering" integrated monitoring perception system and a digital twin platform as its core, and to develop a new generation of intelligent dam systems through intelligent technologies like digital twins. This enables full-chain intelligent management from forecasting and early warning to multi-objective optimal operation, providing strategic pathways and key technical support for the high-level safety and sustainable development of river basin reservoir groups.

       

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