长江防洪现状及思考

    Current status and reflections on Changjiang River flood control

    • 摘要: 为适配新时代经济社会高质量发展对防洪保安的需求,明确长江流域防洪体系现状与短板,为后续防洪体系建设优化及实时防洪策略制定提供依据,系统梳理了堤防、水库、河道整治、蓄滞洪区、洲滩民垸等长江流域现状防洪工程体系,以及水文站网、水文监测、洪水预报、洪水调度、法律法规等非工程体系,阐述了长江干流、主要支流及主要城市的防洪能力,并从防洪工程短板、水情监测预报体系不足、防洪管理薄弱等方面,剖析了现状防洪体系与需求的差距。研究明确长江流域已形成“以堤防为基础、三峡工程为骨干,其他干支流水库、蓄滞洪区、河道整治相配合”的防洪工程体系,以及“监测- 预报- 预警- 调度- 法规”协同的非工程体系,不同区域防洪能力实现差异化提升。同时,识别出支流堤防总体基础薄弱、蓄滞洪区建设滞后、局部河势不稳定、洪水预报水平不能完全满足需求、水库防洪调度科学化水平需增强等核心问题,最终从持续推进防洪工程建设, 如优先完成重要蓄滞洪区建设、推进重点堤防护岸达标等; 完善非工程措施, 如构建一体化感知网、提升预报精度与决策智能化水平等; 优化超标准洪水应对策略, 如挖潜河道泄洪能力、适度水库超蓄等方面提出建议。研究成果可为构建适应新时代高质量发展的长江防洪体系、全面提升防洪保安能力提供方向。

       

      Abstract: To meet the demands for flood security assurance aligned with the high-quality economic and social development in the new era, clarify the current status and shortcomings of the flood control system in the Changjiang River Basin, and provide a basis for optimizing subsequent flood control system construction and formulating real-time flood control strategies, this study systematically reviews the current flood control engineering system, including embankments, reservoirs, river channel regulation, flood storage and detention areas, and embanked floodplains, as well as the non-engineering system comprising hydrometric networks, hydrological monitoring, flood forecasting, flood operation, and laws and regulations. It elaborates on the flood control capacities of the Changjiang River main stem, major tributaries, and key cities. Furthermore, it analyzes the gaps between the current flood control system and the actual requirements from aspects such as deficiencies in flood control engineering, inadequacies in the hydrometric monitoring and forecasting system, and weaknesses in flood management. The research confirms that the Changjiang River Basin has established a flood control engineering system "centered on levees, anchored by the Three Gorges Project, and supplemented by reservoirs on other main and tributary rivers, flood detention areas, and river channel improvements", along with a coordinated non-engineering system integrating "Monitoring-Forecasting-Early Warning-Operation-Regulations", leading to differentiated improvements in flood control capabilities across different regions. Concurrently, core issues are identified, including the generally weak foundation of tributary levees, lagging construction of flood storage and detention areas, unstable river regimes in certain reaches, flood forecasting levels not fully meeting requirements, and the need to enhance the scientific level of reservoir flood operation. Finally, recommendations are proposed, including continuously advancing flood control engineering construction, such as prioritizing the completion of key flood storage and detention areas and promoting the compliance of key levees and bank protection works; improving non-engineering measures, such as building an integrated monitoring network and enhancing forecasting accuracy and decision-making intelligence; and optimizing strategies for coping with exceedance-level floods, such as tapping the potential of river channel discharge capacity and allowing moderate reservoir surcharge. The research findings can provide direction for building a Changjiang River flood control system adapted to high-quality development in the new era and comprehensively enhancing flood security assurance capabilities.

       

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