流域超标准洪水分级应对关键技术研究

    Research on key technologies for graded response to exceeding-design floods of river basins

    • 摘要: 流域超标准洪水是稀遇事件,在气候变化及工程调度运行等人类活动的综合影响下,其演变规律及致灾机理日趋复杂,应对中存在大洪水测不到测不准、预报精度不高、预警针对性不强、工程超标准调度运用方式不明确、防汛指挥系统难以响应调度场景变化等突出问题。为此,结合多年研究和实践经验,进一步明确了流域超标准洪水的定义,提出了超标准洪水等级划分方法,将洪水预警及应急响应从已有应急响应预案中防御标准内洪水的四级拓展为防御超标准洪水的“四+3”级,构建了水文气象耦合的动态渐进式流域超标准洪水分级预警体系,形成了《流域超标准洪水防御预案编制导则》等研究成果,填补了我国流域超标准洪水“监测-预报-预警-调度-响应”全链条应对关键技术空白,为整体提升我国主要江河流域防洪安全保障水平提供了技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: Exceeding-design floods of river basins are rare occurrences. Due to the combined influence of climate change and human activities such as water engineering operation, the evolving patterns and disaster-causing mechanisms of these floods are becoming increasingly complex. Such complexity leads to significant challenges in responding to these exceeding-design floods, such as the difficulty in monitoring catastrophic floods, low forecasting accuracy, insufficiently targeted early warnings, unclear regulation scheme for exceeding-design flood scheduling, and inadequate response capabilities of flood management systems to quick change of multi-scenarios. To address these issues, this paper, based on years of research and practical experiences, has re-defined the concepts of exceeding-design floods of river basins. A classification method for exceeding-design floods is proposed and applied in Changjiang River. Additionally, the flood warning and emergency response system, originally designed for standard floods, has been expanded to a "Four+3" leveled system specifically tailored for exceeding-design floods. Consequently, a multi-level dynamic progressive pre-warning system for exceeding-design floods based on coupling of hydrology and meteorology is established. These results contributed to research outcomes such as the "Guiding Principles for Preparing Defense Plans for Exceeding-Design Floods of River Basins". This study fills critical gaps in the full-chain of "monitoring-forecasting-warning-scheduling-responding" to deal with exceeding-design floods, bolstering the flood control safety measures in major river basins and providing technical support for the overall improvement of flood control safety in China.

       

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