长江中下游河道崩岸机理、预警及治理技术

    Mechanisms, early warning, and remediation technologies of bank failure in middle and lower Yangtze River

    • 摘要: 受三峡工程及其上游水库群蓄水拦沙影响,长江中下游河道的水沙条件发生了显著变化。为深入揭示长江中下游河道崩岸的形成机理及演化规律,提升崩岸监测预警与治理水平,通过现场勘察与力学分析,阐明了条崩和窝崩的形成机制,解析了抛石护岸工程的水毁破坏模式,研发了考虑坡脚冲刷、抛石护岸水毁、地下水位变动等多因素的断面尺度崩岸软件PBEMS,并拓展形成一维至三维水沙输移、河岸崩退等耦合的多尺度动力学模型。基于地下水位监测、遥感影像等多源数据,建立了动力学模拟与机器学习融合的崩岸预警技术体系,同时明确了下游大型窝崩抢护的治理策略,并以扬中指南村窝崩为例,优化了抢护工程的布设方案。结果表明:①崩岸机制方面,条崩表现为水流冲刷坡脚诱发的“冲刷-崩塌-再冲刷”循环;窝崩由近岸深槽楔入导致边坡失稳,经回流掏刷持续扩展;抛石护岸水毁呈“单颗粒起动—块石团滑移—整体塌陷”三阶段渐进模式。②模型性能方面,PBEMS软件在崩岸时段识别与形态预测上显著优于传统BSTEM软件;多尺度耦合模型成功实现崩岸全过程模拟,其中一维模型对2024年荆江河段崩岸区域预测准确率达64%,三维模型模拟扬中指南村窝崩的宽度误差仅8.4%。③技术应用方面,崩岸预警技术成功应用于荆江河段2024年崩岸风险等级划分,显著提高了崩岸监测与预警的科学性与准确性;经优化后的窝崩治理方案使窝塘流速平均降低14.5%,崩塌面积减少17.4%,岸坡坡度由10.5°降至7.7°。研究成果为长江中下游崩岸风险防控提供了系统的科技支撑,对保障河道安全及区域可持续发展具有重要理论与工程价值。

       

      Abstract: The impoundment and sediment trapping by the Three Gorges Project (TGP) and upstream reservoirs have significantly altered the flow-sediment regime in the middle and lower Yangtze River (MLYR), leading to intensified channel bed scour and frequent bank failure incidents. These pose severe threats to levee safety and the stability of the fluvial regime. To elucidate the formation mechanisms and evolutionary patterns of bank failures in the MLYR and enhance capabilities for monitoring, early warning, and mitigation, this study employed field investigations and mechanical analyses to clarify the mechanisms underlying strip-type bank failures and arc-shaped bank erosion and to analyze the hydraulic failure modes of riprap revetments. A cross-sectional scale bank failure model, PFEMS (Process-Based Bank Failure Model System), was developed, incorporating key factors such as toe scour, hydraulic failure of riprap revetments, and groundwater fluctuation. This model was further extended into a multi-scale hydro-morphodynamic model coupling one-dimensional to three-dimensional sediment transport and bank retreat processes. An integrated early warning system for bank failure was established by fusing multi-source data (including groundwater monitoring and remote sensing imagery) with dynamic simulations and machine learning techniques. Critical emergency stabilization strategies for significant downstream arc-shaped bank erosion events were identified, and the layout scheme for emergency engineering works was optimized using the Zhinan Village (at Yangzhong City) arc-shaped bank erosion event as a case study. Key findings are as follows: ① Bank failure mechanisms: Strip-type bank failures assume as a cyclical "toe scouring-bank failure-re-scouring" process triggered by flow-induced toe erosion. Arc-shaped bank erosion originates from near-bank deep scour pits wedging into the bank, causing slope instability, with subsequent expansion driven by vortex scouring. Hydraulic failure of riprap revetments follows a progressive three-stage mode: initiation of individual particle movement-sliding of rock clusters-mass collapse. ② Model performance: The PFEMS model significantly outperformed the BSTEM software in identifying failure timing and predicting failure morphology. The multi-scale coupled model successfully simulated the entire bank failure process.The 1D model achieved a 64% accuracy rate in predicting bank failure zones within the Jingjiang Reach in 2024. The 3D model simulated the width of the collapse in Zhinan Village, Yangzhong, with an error of only 8.4%. ③ Technical application: The system was successfully applied for risk classification of bank failures in the Jingjiang Reach in 2024, significantly enhancing the scientific rigour and accuracy of monitoring and early warning. The optimized mitigation scheme for arc-shaped bank erosion contributed to an average 14.5% reduction in flow velocity within the scour pit, a 17.4% decrease in collapse area, and a reduction of the bank slope angle from 10.5° to 7.7°. These research outcomes provide systematic scientific and technological support for bank failure risk management in the MLYR, holding pivotal theoretical and engineering significance for ensuring river safety and promoting sustainable regional development.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回