汉江流域水资源供需形势分析

    Analysis on supply-demand situation of water resources in Hanjiang River Basin

    • 摘要: 汉江流域是国家战略水资源保障区,也是南水北调中线等跨流域调水工程水源区。统筹汉江流域内用水和汉江流域调水工程外调水需求,对未来流域水资源供需情势进行了综合研判。分析认为:汉江流域2012-2023年期间供用水量略有增长但趋于稳定,满足用水总量指标要求,但流域用水效率仍有提升空间;汉江流域2030水平年和2035水平年水资源供需分析表明:正常年份(P=50%)和一般枯水年份(P=75%)均不缺水,特枯年份(P=95%)流域内缺水量分别为21.85亿m3和26.57亿m3,一般枯水年份(P=75%)和特枯年份(P=95%)向外流域可调水量远低于调水工程设计规模。基于汉江流域水资源供需形势分析,从汉江流域统一规划、统一治理、统一调度、统一管理等方面综合提出汉江流域水资源开发保护建议,为提高汉江流域和中线受水区供水保障能力提供参考。

       

      Abstract: The Hanjiang River Basin is a national strategic water resources protection area, as well as a water source area for inter-basin water transfer projects such as the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, etc. Through comprehensively considering inner basin water use and inter-basin water transfer demand, we make a deep analysis on future water resources supply-demand situation. It is concluded that: The water supply and demand of the Hanjiang River Basin from 2012 to 2023 increased slightly but tended to be stable, which has satisfied the requirement of the total water consumption index, but there is still room for improvement in the water use efficiency in the basin. For the target years of 2030 and 2035, there is no water shortage in normal years (P=50%) and general dry years (P=75%), while in extremely dry years (P=95%), the water shortage is predicted to be 2.185 billion cubic meters and 2.657 billion cubic meters respectively. On the premise of meeting the domestic water demand within the basin, the demand for water transfer to other basins can be satisfied in normal years (P=50%). In general dry years (P=75%) and extremely dry years (P=95%), the amount of water transferred to other basins will be far lower than the designed scale of the water transfer projects. Based on the analysis of water resources supply-demand situation in the Hanjiang River Basin, the proposal of water resources development and protection was comprehensively put forward from the aspects of unified planning, unified management, unified scheduling and unified management over the Hanjiang River Basin, which will provide a reference to improving the water supply guarantee capacity of the Hanjiang River Basin and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project receiving area.

       

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