长江水文预报现代化建设的实践与思考

    Advances and prospects in hydrological forecasting modernization for Changjiang River

    • 摘要: 水文预报现代化建设是应对气候变化、支撑流域综合治理、保障国家安全与提升防灾减灾能力的关键。在梳理长江流域水文预报现代化建设进展的基础上,基于现代化雨水情监测预报体系建设的“一二三四”总体架构,总结了长江流域在构建“天空地水工”一体化监测网络与数字孪生平台雏形方面的实践,梳理了推动预报技术从经验驱动向智慧化跃迁的关键技术创新成果,总结了其在防洪抗旱中发挥的显著效益,并探讨了未来发展路径。研究表明:目前长江水文已形成了多尺度无缝隙降水耦合预报、分布式水模拟、正逆向互馈预演、多源融合洪水概率预报、智能演进式预报校正、全周期实时预报调度等关键技术体系,预报现代化建设在监测网络、数字平台和核心技术上取得显著进展,并在防洪抗旱中发挥了巨大效益。应用长江水文预报体系,在2020年流域性大洪水中成功避免荆江分洪区启用,减少洪灾损失超百亿元;2022年抗旱调度惠及1 385万人口,有力保障了粮食安全、供水安全,验证了预报体系的有效性。长江水文预报现代化建设实践对提升流域治理能力、保障水安全具有重大意义,可为全球超大型流域的智慧治理提供重要的技术支撑和示范经验。

       

      Abstract: Hydrological forecasting modernization is crucial for addressing climate change, supporting integrated river basin management, safeguarding national security, and enhancing disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities. Following a review of the progress in hydrological forecasting modernization construction within the Changjiang River Basin, and based on the "One-Two-Three-Four" overarching framework for building a modern precipitation-water monitoring and forecasting system, we summarizes the practices in developing an integrated "Space-Air-Ground-Water-Engineering" monitoring network and a prototype digital twin platform for the Changjiang River Basin. We systematically collate the key technological innovations that have propelled forecasting techniques from experience-driven paradigms towards intelligent leaps, highlight their significant benefits in flood control and drought resistance, and explore future development pathways. The research indicates that the Changjiang River hydrological system has established a key technological framework encompassing multi-scale seamless coupled precipitation forecasting, distributed hydrological modeling, forward and reverse feedback prediction, multi-source fused probabilistic flood forecasting, intelligent evolutionary forecast correction, and full-cycle real-time forecasting and operation. Significant advancements have been achieved in monitoring networks, digital platforms, and core technologies through forecasting modernization, yielding substantial benefits in flood and drought management. Notably, the application of the forecasting system during the 2020 big flood in basin-scale successfully prevented the use of the Jingjiang Flood Detention Area, averting economic losses exceeding 10 billion yuan. During the 2022 low water events, application of forecasting system mitigated the impacts on a total population of 13. 85 million, robustly ensuring food and water supply security, thereby validating the system′s effectiveness. The modernization practices of hydrological forecasting in the Changjiang River hold great significance for enhancing basin management capacity and ensuring water security, which can provide crucial technical support and replicable experiences for the intelligent management of mega-scale river basins globally.

       

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