近40年来洞庭湖水位变化及其量化归因

    Quantitative attribution of water level changes in Dongting Lake over past 40 years

    • 摘要: 洞庭湖是中国第二大淡水湖泊,近几十年来受气候变化和人类活动影响,其水文情势发生了显著变化。运用非参数检验方法对洞庭湖水位的年际、年内变化特征及丰、枯水期时间的变化情况进行了定量分析,并运用双累积曲线法量化了气候变化和人类活动对洞庭湖水位变化的贡献率。结果表明:①近40年来,洞庭湖水位呈现显著下降趋势。相比基准期(1980~2002年),变化期(2003~2022年)的湖水位明显降低。其中,西洞庭湖水位在7~11月下降较多,超过0.5 m;南洞庭湖水位在7~12月下降较多,超过0.7 m;东洞庭湖水位同样在7~12月下降较多,超过0.5 m,其中9~10月水位下降更是超过1.6 m。②相比基准期,变化期的枯水期天数明显增加,而丰水期天数明显减少。其中,南洞庭湖枯水期天数增加最多,约46 d;其次是西洞庭湖和东洞庭湖,分别增加约41 d和27 d。此外,西洞庭湖丰水期天数减少最多,约23 d,其次是南洞庭湖和东洞庭湖,分别减少约12 d和4 d。③气候变化使得洞庭湖水位有所上升,约0.20~0.48 m;相反,人类活动使得洞庭湖水位明显下降,约0.60~1.54 m。气候变化和人类活动对洞庭湖水位变化的相对贡献率分别为52.5%和-152.5%。相比气候变化,水库调蓄等人类活动对洞庭湖水位的影响更为显著,是造成洞庭湖水位下降的主要原因。

       

      Abstract: Dongting Lake (DTL), the second-largest freshwater lake in China, has undergone pronounced changes in its hydrological regime over recent decades due to climate change and human activities. This study employed non-parametric statistical methods to quantitatively analyze the inter-annual and intra-annual changes in DTL water levels, as well as the changes in its flood and dry seasons. Furthermore, the double-mass curve method was applied to quantify the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to these water level changes. The results indicate that: ① Over the past 40 years, water levels in DTL have declined significantly. Compared with the reference period (1980~2002), water levels during the change period (2003~2022) decreased notably. Specifically, West DTL experienced a decline of more than 0.5 m from July to November; South DTL showed a decrease of over 0.7 m from July to December; and East DTL also declined by more than 0.5 m from July to December, with the most pronounced decline exceeding 1.6 m in September to October.② Compared with the reference period, dry season days increased significantly during the change period, while flood season days decreased accordingly. South DTL showed the largest increase in dry season days (about 46 days), followed by West DTL (about 41 days) and East DTL (about 27 days). At the same time, West DTL exhibited the greatest reduction in flood season days (about 23 days), South and East DTL decreased by about 12 days and 4 days, respectively.③ Climate change led to an increase in water levels of 0.20 to 0.48 m, while human activities resulted in a decrease of 0.60 to 1.54 m. The relative contributions of climate change and human activities are 52.5% and -152.5%, respectively, indicating that human activities, particularly reservoir regulation, are the main cause of the decline in water levels.

       

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