长江流域干旱形成演变机制与预测研究进展

    Advances in drought formation and evolution mechanism, and its prediction over Changjiang River Basin

    • 摘要: 受东亚季风气候以及全球气候变暖的影响,长江流域近年来极端干旱事件频繁发生,严重威胁流域经济社会高质量发展。深入研究长江流域干旱形成演变机制,提出干旱时空变化过程预测方法,提高干旱预测精度,对保障长江流域供水安全、粮食安全和生态安全具有重大理论意义和实践价值。围绕长江流域干旱形成演变机制与预测问题,重点梳理了近年来长江流域气象干旱、农业干旱和水文干旱研究上取得的重要进展,包括:①形成演变机制方面,系统总结了多尺度气候系统异常特征对区域气象干旱的驱动和维持机制,并进一步揭示了气候条件、流域特征、人类活动等不同因子对农业干旱和水文干旱时空演变过程的影响;②多尺度预测方面,梳理了综合运用动力学、统计学方法的气象干旱预测进展,以及基于陆气耦合的农业干旱和水文干旱预测研究。最后,对未来发展趋势进行了展望,进一步阐述了研发具有物理气候基础的季节尺度气象干旱人工智能预测方法,形成长江流域基于陆气耦合的干旱时空演变过程多尺度无缝隙预测技术体系的重要性。

       

      Abstract: With the influence of the East Asian monsoon variability and global warming, extreme droughts have been occurring frequently over the Changjiang River Basin in recent years, seriously threatening the high-quality economic and social development of the basin.It is of great theoretical significance and practical value to study the drought formation and evolution mechanism in the Changjiang River Basin, to put forward the drought prediction methods and improve associated accuracy to guarantee the water supply, food security, and ecological security of the Changjiang River Basin.In this paper, we focus on the mechanism of drought formation and prediction in the Changjiang River Basin, and highlight the important progress made in recent years in the research of meteorological drought, agricultural drought, and hydrological drought in the Changjiang River Basin.These advances include: ① In terms of the formation and evolution mechanism, we have systematically summarized the driving and maintaining mechanism of the anomalous characteristics of the multi-scale climate system on the regional meteorological drought and further revealed the influence of different factors, such as climatic conditions, watershed characteristics, human activities, etc.on the spatial and temporal evolution of the agricultural drought and hydrological drought.② In terms of the multiscale prediction, we review the progress of meteorological drought prediction using dynamics and statistical methods, as well as researches on agricultural drought and hydrological drought prediction based on land-atmosphere coupling.Finally, the future development trend is prospected, and we underline the importance of developing a method of physically-based artificial intelligence prediction for meteorological drought, and forming a multiscale seamless prediction technology system based on land-atmosphere coupling for the spatial and temporal evolution of drought in the Changjiang River Basin.

       

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