基于认知智能的水循环过程模拟框架与关键技术

    Cognitive intelligence-based simulation framework and key technologies for water cycle process

    • 摘要: 针对当前水循环模拟技术在应对复杂水安全挑战时存在的效率不足、主观性强以及“知识孤岛”等瓶颈问题,面向数字孪生流域建设的战略需求,提出了一种以水利认知大模型为驱动、以领域知识库为引导的“人机协同”水循环过程模拟框架。该框架旨在推动水循环模拟范式从“以模型为核心、人为操作者”向“以认知智能为核心、人为监督者”转变,并通过3个核心阶段实现业务流程的闭环优化。首先,在建模阶段,依托需求驱动的动态建模技术,实现对复杂水文场景的快速理解与按需建模; 在模拟阶段,采用在线自适应与自优化模拟技术,实现对预报决策过程的实时优化与动态调整; 最后,在复盘阶段,通过人机协同的事件复盘与知识萃取,促进面向大模型和知识库的持续迭代与长效学习。应用案例表明: 该框架能够有效实现专家隐性知识的数字化表示,将传统预报中从拓扑构建、场景建模,到模型适配、参数优化等依赖专家经验的手动环节,转变为智能、自动的在线寻优过程,从而显著提升了对汛情的响应能力与决策效率。研究成果为破解水利行业知识传承难题、提升水循环模拟智能化水平提供了新的理论框架与技术路径,对高阶智慧水利体系建设具有重要的支撑价值。

       

      Abstract: To address bottlenecks in current water cycle simulation technologies, such as low efficiency, strong subjectivity, and "knowledge silos" when confronting complex water security challenges, we proposed a "human-computer collaborative" framework for water cycle process simulation that is driven by a large cognitive model of water conservancy and guided by a domain knowledge base, in line with the strategic needs for the development of digital twin basins. This framework aims to advance the water cycle simulation paradigm from "model-centric with a human operator" to "cognitive intelligence-centric with a human supervisor." It achieves closed-loop optimization of the workflow through three core stages. First, in the modeling stage, it depends on demand-driven dynamic modeling technology to realize rapid comprehension and on-demand modeling of complex hydrological scenarios. Second, during the simulation stage, it utilizes online adaptive simulation technology to enable real-time optimization and dynamic adjustment of forecasting and decision-making processes. Finally, in the post-event review stage, it promotes continuous iteration and long-term learning for the large model and knowledge base through human-computer collaborative event review and knowledge extraction. An application case demonstrates that the framework can effectively digitize the tacit knowledge of experts by transforming the manual, expert-dependent workflow of traditional forecasting—involving topology construction, scenario modeling, model adaptation and parameter optimization—into an intelligent, automated online optimization process, thereby significantly enhancing the responsiveness and decision-making efficiency for flood events. This research offers a new theoretical framework and technical pathway for tackling the challenges of knowledge inheritance in the water conservancy sector and advancing intelligence of water cycle simulation, providing significant support for the construction of high-order smart water conservancy systems.

       

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