流域水文非平稳性研究进展与长江流域应用分析

    Research progress of catchment hydrological non-stationarity and its application analysis in Changjiang River Basin

    • 摘要: 在全球气候变化和人类活动共同作用下, 流域水文系统日益表现出非平稳性特征, 挑战了传统基于平稳性假设的水资源管理模式。系统梳理了变化环境下流域水文非平稳性研究进展, 重点讨论了非平稳性概念界定、观测证据、检测方法及过程机理, 阐明气候变异与土地利用变化等驱动因素通过复杂反馈机制共同塑造了流域水文响应特性。结合长江流域实证案例, 揭示了极端旱涝事件频率与强度升高、区域水文响应机理演变等非平稳性特征, 探讨了其对水资源配置、防洪调度与流域管理策略的影响。针对传统管理体系适应性不足的问题, 提出需构建动态调整、韧性提升的适应性水资源管理框架。研究进一步指出, 未来应深化水文非平稳性识别与归因研究, 强化观测与预警体系, 发展面向变化环境的建模与风险评估方法, 以支撑变化环境下长江流域水资源的可持续利用。

       

      Abstract: Under the combined influence of global climate change and intensified human activities, catchment hydrological systems increasingly exhibit non-stationarity characteristics, which challenges traditional water resources management paradigms based on the assumption of stationarity.This paper systematically reviews the research progress on catchment hydrological non-stationarity under changing environments, focusing on its conceptual definition, observational evidence, detection methodologies, and underlying mechanisms.It highlights how climatic variability and land-use change interact through complex feedback processes to reshape watershed hydrological responses.A case study of the Changjiang River Basin reveals distinct non-stationarity features, such as the increased frequency and intensity of extreme drought and flood events, and alterations in regional hydrological response mechanisms; the implications for water resources allocation, flood control operations, and watershed management strategies are discussed.In response to the limitations of traditional management systems under non-stationarity conditions, a dynamic and resilient adaptive water resources management framework is proposed.Future research should aim to deepen the understanding of the identification and attribution of hydrological non-stationarity, strengthen observation and early warning systems, and develop modeling and risk assessment methods tailored to changing environments, thereby supporting the sustainable utilization and high-quality development of water resources in the Changjiang River Basin.

       

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