基于多源数据的辽宁省农业旱灾综合风险评估

    Comprehensive risk assessment of agricultural drought in Liaoning Province based on multi-source data

    • 摘要: 随着气候变化加剧,未来干旱问题将更加严重,建立可靠的旱灾风险评估模型并呈现其空间分布对农业生产至关重要。基于2001~2020年多源卫星遥感和社会经济统计数据,从旱灾风险的危险性、暴露度、脆弱性和防灾减灾能力等4个方面,构建了辽宁省农业旱灾风险评价体系,采用客观组合权重和模糊综合评价法,对辽宁省农业旱灾风险进行时空分析。结果表明:①模糊综合评价法评估的干旱结果与标准化降水蒸散发指数(SPEI)识别的干旱结果特征曲线下面积AUC值达73.84%,预测准确性较高;②辽西北地区危险性、暴露度和脆弱性较高,辽中地区脆弱性较低;③综合模糊评价显示,辽宁省旱灾高风险区占全省面积的42.78%,其中辽西北作为粮食主产区,其高风险区占全省高风险区面积的80.95%,需重点关注;辽中和辽东地区旱灾风险相对较低。研究成果可为辽宁省农业部门制定抗旱减灾措施提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: As climate change intensifies, drought is expected to become an increasingly serious challenge in the future. Developing a reliable assessment model for drought risk and mapping its spatial distribution are therefore crucial for sustaining agricultural production. Based on multi-source satellite remote sensing data and socioeconomic statistics from 2001 to 2020, this study established a drought risk assessment framework for agriculture in Liaoning Province from four dimensions: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation. An objective combination weighting method and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation approach were applied to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural drought risk across the province. The results show that: ① The drought assessment results derived from the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation were highly consistent with those identified by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 73.84%, indicating strong predictive performance. ② The northwestern region of Liaoning Province exhibited higher levels of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, while the central region showed relatively low vulnerability. ③ The comprehensive fuzzy evaluation indicated that high drought risk areas covered 42.78% of the total area within the province. Among them, the northwestern region, which functions as the main grain-producing area, accounted for 80.95% of the total high-risk area and should be prioritized for drought mitigation. In contrast, the central and eastern regions faced relatively low drought risk. These findings provide a scientific basis for developing targeted drought prevention and mitigation measures to support agricultural resilience in Liaoning Province.

       

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