“一带一路”沿线农产品虚拟水贸易网络韧性研究

    Research on resilience of virtual water trade networks of agricultural products along "Belt and Road"

    • 摘要: “一带一路”地区作为全球重要的农业生产基地,深入探究其农产品虚拟水贸易网络韧性,对于保障区域水资源安全与粮食可持续发展具有重要的战略意义。基于2013~2022年“一带一路”沿线65个国家之间的农产品贸易数据,通过虚拟水测算与复杂网络分析,系统刻画了贸易网络的时空格局,并从结构韧性与节点韧性两个维度评估网络韧性的动态演化。结果显示:① “一带一路”沿线农产品虚拟水贸易网络经历了由多中心性到层级收敛,再到分布式重构的演变趋势;贸易流向呈现进口多元化、出口集中化特征。②网络结构展现出高层级、异配性的韧性网络特点;韧性水平呈现由升到降的波动趋势,10年内整体处于衰退状态。③研究区内共识别出7个主导性节点和3个脆弱性节点;在主导性节点中,中国、土耳其、埃及、波兰扮演输入国的角色,而俄罗斯、印度、乌克兰承担输出国职能。研究结果可为优化“一带一路”沿线水资源配置提供参考。

       

      Abstract: The "Belt and Road" region serves as a vital global agricultural production base. Examining the resilience of virtual water trade networks of agricultural products holds important strategic significance for ensuring regional water resource security and sustainable food development. Based on agricultural products trade data from 65 nations along the "Belt and Road" from 2013 to 2022, this paper delineates the spatiotemporal patterns of the trade network through virtual water quantification and complex network analysis, and evaluates the dynamic evolution of network resilience from the dimensions of both structural and nodal resilience. The study reveals that: ① The virtual water trade network of agricultural products along the "Belt and Road" has undergone an evolutionary trajectory from polycentricity to hierarchical convergence, followed by distributed restructuring. The trade flows demonstrate diversified import patterns and concentrated export characteristics. ② The network structure exhibits the characteristics of a resilient network with high hierarchy and disassortativity. The resilience levels show a fluctuating trend of initial increase followed by decline, demonstrating an overall deteriorating trend throughout the decade. ③ Seven dominant nodes and three vulnerable nodes are identified within the study area. Among the dominant nodes, China, Turkey, Egypt and Poland primarily function as importers, while Russia, India and Ukraine serve as major exporters. The findings provide references for optimizing water resource allocation of the countries along the route.

       

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