西藏“一江两河”地区土地利用时空演变及驱动因素

    Spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of land use in "One River and Two Tributaries" region of Tibet

    • 摘要: 针对青藏高原南部典型农牧区土地利用时空演变、地形梯度分布及驱动因素研究不足的问题, 采用GIS技术、地形梯度分级和PLUS模型等方法, 基于1985~2020年高精度土地覆盖数据, 系统分析了西藏“一江两河”地区土地利用在时空、县域和地形梯度三个维度的分布特征及变化规律, 并揭示了其驱动机制。结果表明:①西藏“一江两河”地区1985~2020年土地利用以草地和未利用地为主, 呈现草地缩减, 其余土地利用类型扩张的趋势。②耕地、水域和建设用地高度集中在人口密集的低中海拔平坦河谷地区; 林地、草地和未利用地主要分布在中高海拔的起伏山地。③坡度是研究区耕地和水域变化的主导因子, 贡献度分别为0.13和0.14;林地、草地和未利用地变化的主导因子为海拔, 贡献度依次为0.15、0.11和0.14;建设用地变化的主导因子为人口密度(贡献度=0.26)。研究区土地利用变化深受自然和经济因子的双重影响, 需落实因地制宜的用地规划, 促进该地区人地关系的和谐发展。

       

      Abstract: In response to the insufficient research on the spatio-temporal evolution, topographic gradient distribution, and driving factors of land use in typical agricultural and pastoral areas of the southern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, in this study we employed GIS techniques, topographic gradient classification, and the PLUS model to address these gaps. Based on high-precision land cover data from 1985 to 2020, we systematically analyzed the distribution characteristics and change patterns of land use in the "One River and Two Tributaries" region of Tibet (the Yarlung Zangbo River and its Nyang and Lhasa tributaries) from spatio-temporal, county-level, and topographic gradient perspectives, and explored the driving mechanisms. The results indicated that: ① From 1985 to 2020, grassland and unused land dominated land use in the study area, with grassland showing a decreasing trend and other land use types expanding.② Cultivated land, water bodies, and construction land were highly concentrated in densely populated, low- to medium-elevation flat river valleys; forest land, grassland, and unused land were primarily distributed in undulating mountainous areas at medium to high elevations.③ Slope was the dominant factor driving changes in cultivated land and water bodies, with contribution degrees of 0.13 and 0.14, respectively; elevation was the dominant factor for changes in forest land, grassland, and unused land, with contribution degrees of 0.15, 0.11, and 0.14, respectively; population density was the dominant factor for construction land change (contribution degree of 0.26). Land use changes in the study area are profoundly influenced by both natural and socio-economic factors. It is essential to implement land use planning tailored to local conditions to promote the harmonious development of human-land relationships in the region.

       

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