基于贝叶斯理论和TSP波速的围岩等级预测方法

    Prediction method for surrounding rock mass grade based on Bayesian theory and TSP wave velocity

    • 摘要: 岩体分级(RMR)系统在地质力学评价中起着至关重要的作用,传统岩体质量分级采用经验和地质统计相结合的方法,其结果往往不够准确,尤其是在断层和溶洞等地层薄弱的区域。为了解决这些技术固有的不确定性和误差问题,提出了一种基于贝叶斯框架的渐进式RMR预测策略。该策略包括3个关键组成部分:①变异函数建模, 利用开挖面观测数据构建并更新变异函数模型,以捕捉RMR的空间变异性;② TSP-RMR统计模型, 将TSP-RMR统计模型集成到贝叶斯序列更新过程中;③贝叶斯最大熵(BME)集成,通过时空贝叶斯最大熵(BME)方法将开挖获得的地质信息与隧道地震波预测(TSP)数据相结合。将该方法应用于隧洞工程实践中,应用结果表明:TSP数据与地质揭露数据的融合显著提高了RMR预测的准确性;在选择的预测点上,与传统的Kriging方法相比,所提方法的相对误差小于15%。

       

      Abstract: The rock mass rating system (RMR) plays a vital role in geomechanical evaluation.The traditional rock mass quality classification uses a combination of experiences and geostatistics, and the results are often not accurate enough, especially in areas with weak strata such as faults and caves.In order to solve the inherent uncertainties and errors of these empirical techniques, this paper proposes a progressive RMR prediction strategy based on Bayesian framework.The strategy includes three key components: ① Variogram modeling.We use the observation data of the excavated surface to construct and update the variogram model to capture the spatial variability of RMR.② TSP-RMR statistical model.The TSP-RMR statistical model is integrated into the Bayesian sequence update process.③ Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) integration.The geological information obtained by excavation is combined with tunnel seismic prediction (TSP) data by BME method.The proposed method was applied to a tunnel engineering practice.The results show that the fusion of TSP data and geological exposure data significantly improves the accuracy of RMR prediction.On the selected prediction points, the relative error of this method is less than 15% compared with the traditional Kriging method.

       

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