水风光互补系统保证出力计算方法对比

    Comparison on firm power output calculation methods for hydro-wind-solar complementary systems

    • 摘要: 随着“双碳”目标的提出和中国新型电力系统的逐步构建,风、光新能源与水电打捆实施互补调度已成为必然趋势,然而目前缺少水风光多能互补系统保证出力的推求方法。以黄河上游清洁能源基地为研究对象,提出了叠加法、试算法、经验频率法、理论频率法4种水风光多能互补系统的保证出力计算方法,并基于确定性优化调度模型对各保证出力计算结果进行验证。结果表明:基于试算法推求的水风光互补系统保证出力既可有效减小系统出力的波动性,又使得系统发电量维持较高水平,在所有方案中表现最优。研究分析了各互补系统保证出力计算方法的优缺点,可为水风光互补系统的科学规划与调度提供理论依据。

       

      Abstract: With the proposed goal of "dual carbon" and the gradual construction of a new power system, complementary management of wind, solar, and hydropower has become an inevitable trend. However, methods for calculating the guaranteed power output of hydro-wind-solar complementary systems are still in scarcity. In this paper, taking the clean energy base in the upper Yellow River Basin as a case study, four methods for calculating the guaranteed power output of hydro-wind-solar complementary systems—namely the superposition method, trial calculation method, empirical frequency method, and theoretical frequency method—are proposed, and the results are verified based on a deterministic optimal operation model. The results show that the guaranteed power of the hydro-wind-solar complementary system based on the trial calculation method can effectively reduce the fluctuation of system output while maintain a high level of energy production, performing best among all the schemes. This study analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of the four methods and provides a theoretical basis for the scientific planning and scheduling of hydro-wind-solar complementary systems.

       

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