长期水文预测技术研究进展与智慧预测系统探索

    Research progress in long-term hydrological forecasting technologies and exploration of intelligent prediction system

    • 摘要: 长期水文预测是实现水资源高效利用的重要技术手段。在调研国内外长期水文预测技术研究进展的基础上,结合长江流域长期水文预测业务需求,提出未来长期水文气象智慧预测系统建设的构想。首先从传统统计方法、机器学习方法及水文-气象模型耦合方法3方面对长期水文预测技术进行了梳理归纳,并分析总结了目前存在的主要问题;其次,介绍了长江流域长期水文预测业务现状,以及在准确率、不确定性等方面面临的挑战;基于此,提出了一个集智能化、科学化、高效化于一体的长江流域长期水文气象智慧预测系统的构想。该系统汇聚长期气候“百科问答”、长期雨云“未来导航”、长期水流“智慧分析”、长期预测“资治通鉴”、长期成果“产品智驭”等功能于一体,旨在提升长期水文预测的准确性和时效性,为长江流域水资源科学管理提供坚实的技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: Long-term hydrological forecasting is an important technology for the efficient utilization of water resources. In this study, we synthesize global research advances in long-term hydrological forecasting and examine operational needs specific to the Changjiang River Basin, proposing an intelligent framework for next-generation forecasting systems. We first systematically review three methodological categories, that is traditional statistical approaches, machine learning techniques, and coupled hydrological-meteorological modeling, and analyze their key limitations. Second, we describe the current status of long-term hydrological forecasting operations in the Changjiang River Basin, as well as the challenges faced in terms of accuracy, uncertainty, and other aspects. Building on this, we propose an innovative framework for an intelligent, science-based, and efficient long-term hydro-meteorological forecasting system. This system integrates five key modules: climate pattern diagnostics ("Encyclopedia"), precipitation trajectory modeling ("Precipitation Navigator"), adaptive hydrological analysis ("Smart Basin Analyst"), predictive benchmarking ("Evaluation and Recommendation"), and dynamic product generation ("Output Engine"). It aims to improve the accuracy and timeliness of long-term hydrological forecasting and provide robust technical support for the scientific management of water resources in the Changjiang River Basin.

       

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