基于Copula的长江流域复合干热事件演变特征分析

    Analysisof evolution characteristics of compound dry-heat events in Changjiang River Basin based on Copula function

    • 摘要: 为揭示长江流域复合干热事件的时空演变特征,利用1961~2022年长江流域月降水和月气温观测资料,基于标准化降水指数(SPI)和标准化温度指数(STI)分析了复合干热事件的发生频率和发生面积变化特征; 在此基础上,利用Copula函数构建高温和干旱的二维联合分布函数,计算不同强度阈值下的联合重现期。结果表明:1961~2022年长江流域中下游地区为复合干热事件的高发区;1992~2022年相比1961~1991年,长江流域上、中、下游的发生频率均呈现增加趋势,中下游区域增长较显著;轻度、中度复合干热事件发生面积增长速率分别为每10 a增长2%和1%;长江流域内轻度复合干热事件较为频繁,平均重现期在0~26 a,中度以上复合干热事件重现期在9~92 a,上游平均重现期略高于中下游;2006、2013、2019年和2022年为复合干热事件典型年,联合重现期分别为181, 335, 109 a和401 a。研究成果可为深入认识长江流域复合干热事件的演变规律提供科学支撑。

       

      Abstract: To reveal the spatiotemporal evolution of compound dry-hot events in the Changjiang River Basin, the frequency and extent of the compound dry-hot events were analyzed based on the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI) and Standardized Temperature Index(STI) using the monthly precipitation and monthly temperature observation data in the Changjiang River Basin from 1961 to 2022.On this basis, a Copula function was used to construct a bivariate joint cumulative probability distribution function for hot (STI) and dry (-SPI), and to calculate the return period of the compound events under different thresholds.The results showed that the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River Basin have been the high-incidence areas of compound dry-hot events over the past 62 years.Compared to 1961~1991, the frequency increased during 1992~2022 across all subregions, with a more notable rise in the middle and lower reaches.The growth rates of the extent area for mild and moderate compound dry-hot events were 2%/10a and 1%/10a, respectively.In addition, mild compound dry-hot events occurred frequently in the Changjiang River Basin, with an average return period ranging from 0 to 26 years, while moderate compound events exhibited return periods between 9 and 92 years.The average return period in the upper reaches was slightly higher than that in the middle and lower reaches.The years 2006, 2013, 2019, and 2022 were identified as typical compound dry-hot event years, with joint return periods of 181, 335, 109, and 401 years, respectively.The findings support understanding the evolution pattern of compound dry-hot events in Changjiang River Basin.

       

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