基于ITA法的娄底市多尺度干旱时空分布特征分析

    Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of multi-scale drought in Loudi City based on Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) method

    • 摘要: 娄底市是湖南省重要的商品粮生产基地,位于“衡邵娄干旱走廊”的核心区域,常年面临多种类型缺水叠加影响。近年来,全球气候变化导致国内水资源条件愈加复杂,娄底市境内干旱时空分布特征仍有待进一步解析。基于娄底市境内5个国家基本气象站1973~2022年气象资料,建立多尺度干旱指数序列集,采用ITA趋势分析等方法,研究了多尺度干旱时空分布特征。结果表明:①不同等级干旱发生次数随等级递减且具有显著的时间分布差异,其中重旱和特旱事件的发生较为稀少,但在特定年份表现出集中性;季节和年际尺度中,发生气象干旱的频率由低至高的尺度分别是春季、冬季、年际、夏季、秋季,特旱只发生在夏季、秋季和年际尺度中。②不同气象站点趋向干旱的时间尺度呈现差异性。新化站在冬季趋向干旱,双峰站在春季、秋季、冬季、月尺度和年际均趋向干旱,冷水江站在月尺度、春季、冬季趋向干旱,娄底站则在月尺度、秋季和冬季趋向干旱。③娄底市境内春季、秋季、冬季整体趋向干旱,夏季整体趋向湿润,月尺度和年际尺度的干旱趋势则具有更加复杂的空间特点,其中西部呈现湿润的趋势,中东部呈现干旱的趋势。④相较于Mann-Kendall方法,ITA趋势分析方法对干旱指数序列倾向趋势的识别具有更高的敏感度。研究成果可为娄底市干旱预警和防治提供理论支撑。

       

      Abstract: Loudi City serves as an essential commodity grain production base in Hunan Province and is situated in the core area of the "Heng-Shao-Lou Drought Corridor", facing persistent impacts from various types of water shortages.In recent years, global climate change has intensified the complexity of water resource conditions in China, yet the spatiotemporal distribution of drought in Loudi City remains to be further elucidated.Based on meteorological data from five national basic meteorological stations in Loudi City from 1973 to 2022, a multi-scale drought index sequence set was established.The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of multi-scale drought were investigated using the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) method and other methods.The results indicate that: ① The frequency of drought events decreases as the intensity grade increases, exhibiting significant temporal variations.Severe and extreme drought events are relatively rare but show concentration in specific years.On seasonal and inter-annual scales, the frequency of meteorological drought from lowest to highest follows the order of spring, winter, inter-annual, summer, and autumn; notably, extreme droughts occur only in summer, autumn, and inter-annual scales.② The time scales of drought trends vary across different meteorological stations.Xinhua Station tends toward aridity in winter; Shuangfeng Station shows drying trends across spring, autumn, winter, monthly, and inter-annual scales; Lengshuijiang Station trends toward aridity on monthly, spring, and winter scales; while Loudi Station exhibits drying trends on monthly, autumn, and winter scales.③ Overall, Loudi City exhibits a drying trend in spring, autumn, and winter, while a wetting trend is observed in summer.Drought trends on monthly and inter-annual scales show more complex spatial patterns, characterized by wetting in the western region and drying in the central and eastern regions.④ Compared with the Mann-Kendall test, the ITA method demonstrates higher sensitivity in identifying the tendencies of drought index sequences.These findings provide theoretical support for drought early warning and prevention in Loudi City.

       

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