滇池湖盆区蒸发量突变特征及影响因素分析

    Analysis on abrupt change characteristics and influencing factors of evaporation in Dianchi Lake basin

    • 摘要: 为揭示气候变化背景下滇池湖盆区蒸发量突变特征及其驱动机制,基于1960~2023年水文气象数据,采用突变检验方法识别年蒸发量时序突变点,结合Pearson相关法与交叉小波变换法,定量解析突变前后蒸发量与气象要素的时空关联性。结果表明:①滇池湖盆区年蒸发量呈显著下降趋势,阶段性特征明显,于1989年发生突变;②突变前,蒸发量变化主要由相对湿度与日照时数的物理平衡驱动,降水量与气温影响较弱;突变后,气温上升成为核心驱动力,叠加相对湿度与日照时数的持续作用;③突变前蒸发量与降水量、平均风速存在1~5 a共振周期,突变后该周期性消失;突变后平均气温、相对湿度、日照时数与蒸发量相干性显著增强。分析表明,滇池湖盆区蒸发量突变本质上是多要素协同演变的结果,气温上升在突变后主导了蒸发量变化的能量再分配过程,该结论可为气候变化下区域水文循环机制研究提供参考。

       

      Abstract: To investigate the characteristics and driving mechanisms of evaporation abrupt changes in the Dianchi Lake Basin under climate change, this study utilizes hydrological and meteorological data from 1960 to 2023.Abrupt change points in the annual evaporation time series were identified using a mutation test method, and the spatiotemporal correlations between evaporation and meteorological elements before and after the abrupt change were quantitatively analyzed using the Pearson correlation method and cross wavelet transform.The results indicate that: ① Annual evaporation in the Dianchi Lake Basin showed a significant decreasing trend with distinct stage characteristics, and an abrupt change occurred in 1989;② Before the abrupt change, changes in evaporation were mainly driven by the physical balance between relative humidity and sunshine duration, with weaker influences from precipitation and temperature.After the abrupt change, temperature rise became the core driving force, coupled with the persistent effects of relative humidity and sunshine duration; ③ Before the abrupt change, there was a 1~5 year resonance cycle between evaporation, precipitation, and average wind speed, which disappeared after the abrupt change.Following the abrupt change, the correlation between evaporation and mean temperature, relative humidity, and sunshine duration significantly strengthened.The analysis suggests that the abrupt change in evaporation in the Dianchi Lake Basin is essentially the result of the coordinated evolution of multiple factors, with the temperature increase dominating the redistribution of energy in the evaporation process after the abrupt change.These findings can provide a reference for studying regional hydrological cycle mechanisms under climate change.

       

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