融合特征筛选与多尺度特征增强的大坝变形预测

    Dam deformation prediction based on features screening and multi-scale features enhancement

    • 摘要: 为了解决大坝变形预测中出现的特征因子冗余及周期性规律捕捉不足等问题, 建立了一种融合特征筛选与多尺度特征增强的大坝变形预测模型。首先, 利用最大信息系数(MIC)筛选出与大坝变形高度相关的环境因子, 有效去除冗余变量, 简化模型输入; 其次, 采用完全集合经验模态分解自适应噪声(CEEMDAN)对变形数据进行自适应分解, 有效减少了非线性和非平稳性影响, 提取具有明确物理含义的固有模态函数; 最后, 提出频率-时间增强注意力块并嵌入Transformer模型, 通过离散余弦变换(DCT)捕获频域信息, 实现数据多尺度特征提取与增强。以江西省上犹江大坝变形监测数据开展实验, 结果表明:构建的模型能够取得优异的预测效果, R2达到0.999 1, RMSE为0.041 3 mm, MAE为0.031 8 mm, 相较于Transformer、LSTM、GRU和TCN模型, R2分别提升了0.015 9, 0.019 2, 0.018 0及0.016 9;尤其在峰值处和波动节点位置, 该模型表现出了更高的精确性与稳定性; 此外, 在不同监测点的变形预测实验中, 此模型依然保持了较高的预测精度, 验证了其在大坝安全监测领域的有效性与实际应用价值。

       

      Abstract: In order to solve the problem of feature factor redundancy and insufficient capture of periodic laws in dam deformation prediction, a dam deformation prediction model that combined features screening and multi-scale features enhancement was established in this paper. Firstly, the maximum information coefficient (MIC) was used to screen out the environmental factors highly related to the dam deformation, which can effectively remove redundant variables and simplify the model input. Secondly, the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) was used to adaptively decompose the deformation data, which effectively reduced the influence of nonlinearity and non-stationarity, and extracted the intrinsic mode function with clear physical meaning. Finally, a frequency-time enhanced attention block was proposed and embedded into the Transformer model. The frequency domain information was captured by discrete cosine transform (DCT) to realize multi-scale feature extraction and enhancement of data. Engineering experiments were carried out based on the deformation monitoring data of Shangyoujiang Dam in Jiangxi Province. The results showed that the model constructed in this paper can achieve excellent prediction results. The model′s R2 reached 0.999 1, RMSE was 0.041 3 mm, and MAE was 0.031 8 mm. Compared with Transformer, LSTM, GRU and TCN models, R2 was improved by 0.015 9, 0.019 2, 0.018 0 and 0.016 9, respectively. Especially at the peak and fluctuation node positions, the model constructed in this paper showed higher accuracy and stability. In addition, in the deformation prediction experiments of different monitoring points, this model still maintained high prediction accuracy, which verified its effectiveness and practical application value in the field of dam safety monitoring.

       

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