基于主客观融合赋权的防洪调度风险效益决策评价

    Risk-benefit decision evaluation on flood control operations based on subjective-objective integrated weighting

    • 摘要: 为解决复杂水工程防洪调度方案决策难题,提出了基于AHP-CRITIC-TOPSIS的主客观融合赋权风险效益评价决策模型,以长江流域1954年大洪水防洪调度推演为例,构建防洪调度风险效益指标体系,通过AHP-CRITIC法耦合实现指标权重的“经验导向-数据驱动”的协同优化,并将TOPSIS法应用到水工程联合防洪调度方案调控效果评价中。结果表明: 风险效益指标存在博弈,受影响人口数指标权重最大(0.251 3),组合权重更好地融合了专家决策偏好经验;推荐的最优方案3, 相较于方案1以减少防洪库容76.3亿m3为代价,使下游超额洪量减少了50亿m3,受影响人口减少了120.8万人,淹没损失减少了232亿元。研究成果可为复杂水工程联合防洪调度调控效果评价和方案优选提供参考。

       

      Abstract: To address the decision-making challenges in flood control scheduling for complex water projects, an integrated subjective-objective weighting risk-benefit evaluation and decision-making model based on AHP-CRITIC-TOPSIS was proposed. Taking the flood control scheduling simulation for the Changjiang River Basin from July 28 to August 2, 1954, as a case study, a risk-benefit index system for flood control scheduling was constructed. The AHP-CRITIC method was used to collaboratively optimize index weights in an "experience-oriented and data-driven" manner, and the TOPSIS method was applied to evaluate the effectiveness of joint flood control scheduling schemes for water projects. The results show that there is trade-offs among risk-benefit indicators, with the affected population indicator receiving the highest weight of 0.251 3. The combined weighting approach effectively integrates expert decision preferences and empirical experience. Compared with Scheme 1, the recommended optimal Scheme 3 reduces the downstream excess flood volume by 5 billion cubic meters, decreases the affected population by 1.208 million people, and reduces inundation losses by 23.2 billion yuan, at the cost of lowering flood control capacity by 7.63 billion cubic meters. The findings can provide a reference for evaluating regulation effectiveness and optimizing joint flood control scheduling schemes for complex water engineering projects.

       

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