金沙江下游短中期水文气象预报产品可用性分析

    Assessing operational usability of short-and medium-range hydro-meteorological forecast products in lower Jinsha River Basin

    • 摘要: 目前对水文气象预报产品预报水平的分析大多集中在预报效果定性比较,缺乏对预报产品可用性的定量评价,现有评价指标也未考虑不同预见期预报的不确定性,因此提出一种可用性评价指标是亟待解决的问题。综合考虑TS评分、平均绝对相对误差、纳什效率系数等传统预报精度评价指标及不同预见期预报的不确定性,提出预报产品可用性评价指标;并以金沙江下游流域为例,对水文气象预报产品的精度进行分析,对产品可用性进行评价。可用性分析结果表明:乌东德水库累计入库水量预报产品>入库流量预报产品>金沙江下游流域面雨量预报产品>乌东德水库入库洪水过程预报产品。其中,预见期1~5 d时,金沙江下游流域面雨量预报产品、乌东德水库入库流量、累计入库水量预报产品以及预见期1~2 d洪水过程预报产品可用性较强(可用性评价指标≥0.7);预见期3 d时洪水过程预报产品可用性一般(可用性评价指标≥0.6)。研究成果可为金沙江下游流域水库群联合调度提供技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: The evaluation of hydro-meteorological forecast products currently relies heavily on qualitative comparison of performance, with a notable lack of quantitative assessment regarding their practical usability. Furthermore, existing evaluation indices often fail to incorporate the inherent uncertainty in forecasts across different lead times. Consequently, the development of a robust, quantifiable availability evaluation indicator has become an urgent priority. In this study, we proposed a forecast product usability evaluation index, integrating conventional accuracy indices—including the Threat Score (TS), mean absolute relative error (MARE), and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE)—while explicitly taking account of forecast uncertainty across varying lead times. Taking the lower Jinsha River Basin as a case study, we applied this index to analyze the accuracy and assess the usability of several hydro-meteorological forecast products. The results indicate the following usability ranking: cumulative inflow forecast products for the Wudongde Reservoir > inflow forecast products > areal precipitation forecast products for the lower Jinsha River Basin > flood process forecast products for the Wudongde Reservoir. Specifically, for the 1~5 d lead times, areal precipitation forecast products for the lower Jinsha River Basin, inflow forecast products, cumulative inflow forecast products, and flood process forecast products for the 1~2 d lead times for the Wudongde Reservoir exhibit high usability (usability index≥0.7). For the 3 d lead time, flood process forecast products demonstrate moderate usability (usability index≥0.6). These findings provide a technical foundation to support the joint operation and scheduling of reservoir groups in the lower Jinsha River Basin.

       

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