中国大河入海径流量变化过程及对ENSO和EASM的响应

    Variation process of runoff of major Chinese rivers into sea and their response to ENSO and EASM

    • 摘要: 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)是全球年际气候变化的重要信号,东亚夏季风(EASM)是造成中国夏季降水异常的主导因素,两者是影响全球和区域尺度水文过程的重要气候现象。为揭示河流入海径流量的变化特征以及对ENSO和EASM的响应,基于1960~2023年中国代表性大河——黄河、长江和珠江入海水文站的径流量数据,运用M-K非参数检验、Morlet小波分析等方法,分析3条河流入海径流量的趋势和周期变化,探究入海径流量变化对ENSO和EASM的响应。结果表明:①黄河、长江和珠江入海径流量分别呈现显著减少、不显著增加和不显著减少的趋势变化,且发生突变年份分别为1985年, 1988年和2003年,1983、1992年和2002年。② 3条河流入海径流量均存在2~8 a时间尺度上的年际周期变化,由北向南对ENSO的响应越发显著;进入21世纪后入海径流量对ENSO的响应均不显著。③黄河和长江入海径流量与EASM存在2~6 a时间尺度上的年际周期变化,但珠江入海径流量与EASM无显著共振周期;3条河流入海径流量与EASM不存在长时间尺度(年代际)上的显著共振周期。研究成果可为流域水资源管理、旱涝防治和区域水文过程研究提供参考依据。

       

      Abstract: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a crucial signal of global interannual climate change, while the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is the dominant factor causing abnormal summer precipitation in China. Both are important climatic phenomena affecting hydrological processes on global and regional scales. To reveal the variation characteristics of river runoff into the sea and its response to ENSO and EASM, we analyzed the trends and periodic variations of runoff from three representative major rivers in China (the Yellow River, Changjiang River, and Pearl River) based on data from their estuarine hydrological stations (1960~2023). Methods including the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Morlet wavelet analysis were employed for this purpose, and the response of runoff changes to ENSO and EASM was explored. The results indicated that: ① The runoff into the sea of the Yellow River, Changjiang River, and Pearl River showed a significant decreasing trend, an insignificant increasing trend, and an insignificant decreasing trend, respectively. The abrupt change years occurred in 1985 for the Yellow River; 1988 and 2003 for the Changjiang River; and 1983, 1992, and 2002 for the Pearl River. ② All three rivers exhibited interannual periodic variations in runoff into the sea on a time scale of 2~8 years, with the response to ENSO becoming more significant from north to south. However, the response of runoff into the sea to ENSO has been insignificant since the 21st century. ③ The runoff into the sea of the Yellow River and Changjiang River had interannual periodic variations with EASM on a time scale of 2~6 years, while the Pearl River showed no significant resonant period with EASM. Additionally, there were no significant resonant periods on a long-term (interdecadal) scale between the runoff into the sea of the three rivers and EASM. The research findings can provide a reference for watershed water resources management, drought and flood prevention, and regional hydrological process research.

       

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