瀑布沟、紫坪铺水库蓄能变化规律及电力优化启示

    Storage energy variationrules and power optimization implications of Pubugou and Zipingpu Reservoirs

    • 摘要: 为制定基于蓄能调度的电力优化策略并揭示不同水库蓄能规律差异对电力生产的指导作用,以瀑布沟水库和紫坪铺水库为研究对象,基于2021~2024年逐旬水位数据,构建蓄能值计算模型,量化蓄能比、消落速率等关键指标,系统对比分析了两库的来水电量特性、蓄能变化趋势及指标差异。结果表明:瀑布沟水库来水电量丰枯比(4.9)显著高于紫坪铺水库(3.4),其蓄能调节潜能更大,最大蓄能比变化空间分别为0.973 7,0.912 2;两库汛期均观测到反常态消落现象,与极端气候事件(如2022年高温干旱)引发的来水电量剧烈波动及多重调度需求密切相关;瀑布沟水库的强调节潜力与紫坪铺水库的区位优势具备互补性。基于蓄能指标差异构建的协同调度框架及蓄能比动态阈值,可为优化丰枯期电力分配、提升电网韧性及防洪-发电-生态多目标协同调度提供理论依据和决策支持。

       

      Abstract: To formulate power optimization strategies based on storage energy scheduling and to reveal the guiding role to power production played by different reservoir storage energy rules, this study took the Pubugou and Zipingpu reservoirs as research objects.Based on ten-day water level data from 2021 to 2024, a storage energy calculation model was constructed to quantify key indicators such as the storage energy ratio and drawdown rate.The inflow power characteristics, storage energy variation trends, and indicator differences between the two reservoirs were systematically compared and analyzed.The results show that the wet-to-dry ratio of inflow power of Pubugou Reservoir (4.9) is significantly higher than that of Zipingpu Reservoir (3.4), indicating greater potential for storage energy regulation.The maximum variation ranges of the storage energy ratio are 0.973 7 and 0.912 2, respectively.Anomalous drawdown phenomena are observed in both reservoirs during flood seasons, which are closely related to drastic fluctuations in inflow power and multiple scheduling demands triggered by extreme climate events (e.g., the high-temperature drought in 2022).The strong regulation potential of Pubugou Reservoir and the locational advantages of Zipingpu Reservoir exhibit complementary characteristics.The coordinated scheduling framework and the dynamic thresholds for the storage energy ratio, developed based on differences in storage energy indicators, provide theoretical foundations and decision-making support for optimizing power allocation during wet and dry periods, enhancing grid resilience, and achieving multi-objective coordinated reservoir operation considering flood control, power generation, and ecological management.

       

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