金沙江下游梯级水库运行期设计洪水对比研究

    Design floods and flood control water levels during operation period of cascade reservoirs in lower Jinsha River

    • 摘要: 上游水库的联合调度已改变了金沙江下游梯级水库的天然来水来沙条件,原设计洪水和汛限水位无法适应新时期水旱灾害防治和水资源高效利用的需求。考虑上游水库群的调蓄影响,基于Vine Copula推求其最可能和最不利洪水地区组成,计算金沙江下游梯级水库运行期设计洪水,并与非一致性洪水频率分析方法进行对比,比选汛期控制水位方案。研究成果表明:①上游梯级水库调蓄作用显著削减了下游水库断面的洪水量级,根据最不利地区洪水组成结果,向家坝水库运行期1 000 a一遇设计洪峰、3 d、7 d、15 d和30 d洪量相较天然设计成果削减约40.7%, 37.8%, 33.9%, 24.4%和13.2%。②维持原防洪标准不变,乌东德、白鹤滩、溪洛渡和向家坝的汛期控制水位可抬升至958.56, 794.67, 568.75 m和373.42 m,6~9月共计可增发电量24.3亿kW·h。③最可能/最不利地区组成法计算结果与非一致性频率分析计算结果无显著差异,但能详细反映各级水库防洪调度过程。研究成果可为金沙江下游梯级水库运行调度提供理论和技术支撑,实现洪水资源化利用。

       

      Abstract: The joint operation of upstream reservoirs has altered the natural inflow and sedimentation conditions of the cascade reservoirs in the lower Jinsha River.Consequently, the original design floods and flood limited water levels no longer meet the demands of flood and drought prevention and the efficient utilization of water resources in the new era.To quantify the impact of upstream reservoir regulation, the Most Likely Flood Regional Composition (MLFRC) method and the Most Unfavorable Flood Regional Composition (MUFRC) method were modified based on the Vine Copula.The design floods for the cascade reservoirs in the lower Jinsha River were estimated and compared with the non-stationary flood frequency analysis (NFFA) method.Furthermore, the flood control water levels (FCWL) and hydropower generation benefits were reevaluated.The results indicate that: ① The regulation of upstream cascade reservoirs has significantly reduced the design floods.For the operation period of the Xiangjiaba Reservoir, the 1000-year design peak discharge and the 3-day, 7-day, 15-day, and 30-day flood volumes decreased by approximately 40.7%, 37.8%, 33.9%, 24.4%, and 13.2%, respectively, compared to the natural design values.② Maintaining the original flood control standards unchanged, the FCWLs of the Wudongde, Baihetan, Xiluodu, and Xiangjiaba reservoirs can be raised to 958.56 m, 794.67 m, 568.75 m, and 373.42 m, respectively, resulting in additional power generation of 2.43 billion kW·h from June to September.③ The results obtained from the MLFRC and MUFRC methods show no significant difference from those of the NFFA method, but they can reflect the flood control and dispatch of upstream reservoirs in greater detail.This research can provide theoretical and technical support for the operation of cascade reservoirs in the lower Jinsha River and contribute to the realization of flood resource utilization.

       

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