长江流域水资源与社会经济时空匹配分析

    Spatio-temporal matching between water resources and socio-economic factors in Changjiang River Basin

    • 摘要: 研究长江流域水资源与社会经济发展时空匹配格局,是协调水资源与社会经济关系的基础,也是促进实现水资源可持续利用的关键。采用洛伦兹曲线-基尼系数和空间不均衡指数,分析2017~2021年长江流域各省(直辖市)水资源量、人口、工农业用水、第一二产业生产总值的匹配程度和空间均衡性。结果表明:①长江流域水资源量与人口分布属于相对匹配,水资源量与地区生产总值分布属于匹配比较合理,农业用水量与第一产业生产总值分布以及工业用水量与第二产业生产总值分布属于完全匹配; ②从空间分布来看,西藏和青海的均衡性较差,重庆的水资源量与人口和地区生产总值分布较均衡,湖北和陕西农业用水量分布与第一产业生产总值分布较均衡,湖南和江西工业用水量与第二产业生产总值分布较均衡。研究成果可为协调长江流域水资源供需矛盾、实现水资源优化配置提供参考与技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: The Changjiang River Basin is faced with a mismatch between water resources and the layout of economic and social development. Water scarcity in some regions restricts the sustainable development of the Changjiang River Basin. The study on the spatio-temporal matching between water resources and socio-economic development in the Changjiang River Basin is the basis of coordinating their relationships, and also the key to promoting the sustainable utilization of water resources. The Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient and spatial equilibrium index were used to examine the spatio-temporal matching degree and spatial equilibrium of water resources quantity, population, water consumption by agriculture and industry, output values of primary industry and secondary industry in the Changjiang River Basin from 2017 to 2021. The results show that: ① The distribution of water resources in the Changjiang River Basin is relatively matched with the population, the distribution of water resources is reasonably matched with the GDP, the distribution of agricultural water use is completely matched with the output value of primary industry, and the distribution of industrial water use is completely matched with the output value of secondary industry. ② For the spatial distribution, the equilibrium between Xizang and Qinghai Province is poor, Chongqing City′s water resources are balanced with population and regional GDP, while Hubei and Shaanxi Province′s agricultural water uses are balanced with primary industry output value, and Hunan and Jiangxi Province′s industrial water uses are balanced with secondary industry GDP. The results can provide reference and technical support for reconciling contradictions between water supply and demand and realizing optimal water resources allocation in the Changjiang River Basin.

       

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