长江流域水储量异常变化的NARNN-SA预测模型研究

    Forecasting changes of water storage anomalies in Changjiang River Basin based on NARNN-SA model

    • 摘要: 准确可靠地预测长江流域陆地水储量异常(TWSA)变化对实现高效、可持续的水资源管理具有重要意义。基于对TWSA变化自相关性的精细化考虑,提出一种结合季节调整和非线性自回归神经网络(NARNN-SA)的方法,用于预测长江流域TWSA。通过设计两项试验并与自回归(AR)模型、季节性自回归积分滑动平均(SARIMA)模型以及未进行季节调整的NARNN模型进行对比,验证本文NARNN-SA模型的有效性。结果表明:由于季节调整的引入,NARNN-SA模型在预测性能上优于其他对比模型,并与GRACE卫星观测结果高度一致; 在测试阶段的相关系数、纳什效率系数和均方根误差分别为0.894,0.769,1.425 cm。此外,NARNN-SA成功预测了长江流域源头及东、西部区域的TWSA变化,并填补了GRACE卫星与其继代卫星GRACE-FO之间的数据空缺。

       

      Abstract: Accurate and reliable predictions of Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) changes over the Changjiang River Basin are crucial for achieving efficient and sustainable water resource management. This study utilizes a method combining seasonal adjustment and a nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN-SA), leveraging the autocorrelation of TWSA changes in the Changjiang River Basin for the first prediction. Two tests are designed to evaluate the effectiveness of the NARNN-SA model by comparing it against three models: AutoRegression (AR), Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), and a nonlinear autoregressive neural network without seasonal adjustment (NARNN). Results demonstrated that the introduction of seasonal adjustment significantly improved the predictive performance of the NARNN-SA model, which achieved high consistency with GRACE observations, with correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.894, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.769, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.425 cm during the testing phase. Additionally, NARNN-SA successfully predicted TWSA changes in the source, eastern, and western regions of the Changjiang River Basin and bridged the data gap between GRACE and its successor, GRACE-FO missions.

       

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