长江源区次季节尺度降水径流预测评价及偏差校正

    Evaluation and bias correction of subseasonal to seasonal precipitation and runoff prediction in source region of Changjiang River

    • 摘要: 次季节尺度(Subseasonal to Seasonal,S2S)降水预测因其较长的预见期,能够在更长的时间尺度上提供参考信息,应用于长江源区时可有效延长长江流域径流预测的时效性。然而,现有S2S降水预测产品在长江源区往往误差较大,且空间分辨率粗糙,用于驱动对数据质量要求较高的水文模型时,可能会引入较大偏差。为了合理使用S2S降水预测产品开展径流预测,选取了来自全球4个预测中心(中国气象局、欧洲中期天气预报中心、韩国气象厅、英国气象局)的S2S预测产品,对其降水预测精度进行了评价,采用日尺度偏差校正方法对原始降水预测产品进行了校正,并分析了偏差校正对S2S降水预测效果的影响,以及两种校正策略(校正降水气温和校正径流)在长江源区S2S径流预测中的作用。结果表明: ①来自欧洲中期天气预报中心的S2S产品在降水预测中表现最佳,偏差校正可显著提升各不同来源S2S产品对降水的预测效果,具体表现为偏差校正后预测数据与观测数据间的误差减小,且校正效果随预见期延伸更明显。②综合考虑校正效果和计算步骤,直接校正径流更适用于长江源区次季节尺度径流预测的校正。研究成果可为长江流域次季节尺度的降水径流预测提供技术参考。

       

      Abstract: Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) precipitation prediction, characterized by its relatively long lead time, can serve as a reference over a longer temporal scale.When applied to the source region of Changjiang River, it can effectively extend the lead time of runoff prediction in Changjiang River basin.However, existing S2S precipitation prediction products often show large biases and coarse spatial resolution in the source region of Changjiang River.When employed to drive hydrological models with high demands for data quality, these products may introduce substantial biases.In order to rationally utilize S2S precipitation prediction products for runoff prediction, S2S prediction products from four global prediction centers (including the China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Korea Meteorological Administration, and UK Meteorological Office) were selected to evaluate their precipitation prediction accuracy.A daily-scale bias correction method was adopted to correct the original precipitation prediction products.Furthermore, we analyzed the impact of bias correction on the performance of S2S precipitation prediction, as well as the roles of two correction strategies-correction of precipitation and temperature, and correction of runoff prediction-in S2S runoff prediction for the source region of the Changjiang River.The results indicated that: ① the S2S product from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts exhibited the best performance in precipitation prediction.Bias correction could significantly enhance the precipitation prediction capability of S2S products from different sources, which was specifically manifested in the reduction of errors between the predicted data and the observed data after bias correction, and the correction effect became more prominent with the extension of lead time; ② Considering both the correction effect and computational complexity, direct correction of runoff was more suitable for the bias correction of S2S runoff prediction in the source area of the Changjiang River.This study can provide reference for the operational prediction of S2S precipitation and runoff in Changjiang River Basin.

       

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