洞庭湖流域复合干热事件时空变化和归因分析

    Spatio-temporal variation and attribution analysis of compound dry-hot events in Dongting Lake Basin

    • 摘要: 复合干热事件给人类社会和自然环境造成了严重的社会经济损失。考虑到夏季平均气温与降水量之间存在负反馈关系,基于Copula方法构建了综合考虑夏季标准化降水蒸散发指数(SPEI)与标准化温度指数(STI)的复合干热指数(CDHI),并采用CDHI结合路径分析法,评估了1901~2022年夏季洞庭湖流域复合干热强度变化的驱动因素,结合格点化数据对其时空特征进行解析。结果表明:①洞庭湖流域夏季干旱事件和STI表征的高温热浪事件之间存在较强的尾部依赖性特征,这一定程度上加剧了流域西北和南部地区复合干热强度; ②在1962~2022年, 以CDHI表征的重度复合干热事件影响范围呈现不断扩大趋势; ③路径分析结果表明, 流域近60 a夏季平均气温升高对复合干热事件严重程度的影响明显增强,其贡献率较前60 a更为突出,表明升温效应对复合干热事件的影响机制在近几十年发生了显著变化。研究成果不仅有助于改进复合极端事件的风险评估,还可为制定针对性的气候变化应对策略提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Compound dry-hot events have caused severe socioeconomic losses to human society and the natural environment.Given the negative correlation between summer mean temperature and precipitation, we developed a Compound Dry-Hot Index (CDHI) based on the Copula method, which integrates the summer Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Temperature Index (STI).Using CDHI combined with path analysis, the driving factors for changes of compound dry-hot intensity in the Dongting Lake Basin during summer from 1901 to 2022 were assessed, and their spatio-temporal characteristics were analyzed using gridded data.The results showed that: ① A strong tail dependence existed between summer drought events and high temperature heatwave events represented by STI in the Dongting Lake Basin, which to some extent exacerbated the compound dry-hot intensity in the northwestern and southern regions of the basin.② From 1962 to 2022, the affected area of severe compound dry-hot events, as characterized by CDHI, had shown a continuously expanding trend.③ Path analysis results indicated that the impact of rising summer mean temperature on the severity of compound dry-hot events in the basin has significantly intensified over the past 60 years, with its contribution rate being more prominent than that in the preceding 60-year period, suggesting a notable shift in the influence mechanism of warming effects on compound dry-hot events in recent decades.The findings not only contribute to improving risk assessment of compound extreme events but also provide a scientific basis for developing targeted climate change adaptation strategies.

       

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