Abstract:
Compound dry-hot events have caused severe socioeconomic losses to human society and the natural environment.Given the negative correlation between summer mean temperature and precipitation, we developed a Compound Dry-Hot Index (CDHI) based on the Copula method, which integrates the summer Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Temperature Index (STI).Using CDHI combined with path analysis, the driving factors for changes of compound dry-hot intensity in the Dongting Lake Basin during summer from 1901 to 2022 were assessed, and their spatio-temporal characteristics were analyzed using gridded data.The results showed that: ① A strong tail dependence existed between summer drought events and high temperature heatwave events represented by STI in the Dongting Lake Basin, which to some extent exacerbated the compound dry-hot intensity in the northwestern and southern regions of the basin.② From 1962 to 2022, the affected area of severe compound dry-hot events, as characterized by CDHI, had shown a continuously expanding trend.③ Path analysis results indicated that the impact of rising summer mean temperature on the severity of compound dry-hot events in the basin has significantly intensified over the past 60 years, with its contribution rate being more prominent than that in the preceding 60-year period, suggesting a notable shift in the influence mechanism of warming effects on compound dry-hot events in recent decades.The findings not only contribute to improving risk assessment of compound extreme events but also provide a scientific basis for developing targeted climate change adaptation strategies.