基于CHIRPS与SPEI数据集的云南省干旱监测研究

    Drought monitoring in Yunnan Province based on CHIRPS and SPEI datasets

    • 摘要: 云南省地处季风边缘区,受气候变化和地形条件影响,近年来干旱频发、时空分异显著。为了准确识别区域干旱变化规律,提升干旱灾害应对能力,有必要开展基于高时空分辨率数据的定量化干旱监测研究。基于2000~2022年CHIRPS卫星降水数据和标准化降水蒸散发指数(SPEI),采用Theil-Sen中位数趋势估计和Mann-Kendall检验,系统分析了云南省地级市尺度的降水演变趋势、干旱频率、持续时间及空间分布特征。结果表明:云南省东南部、中部及西北部地区在2000~2022年间干旱发生频率较高,且干旱加剧趋势显著;累计干旱事件次数超过15次,2019年东南部地区干旱持续时间最长达8个月,SPEI最低值为-1.8,干旱严重程度明显;降水减少与干旱频率增加呈显著正相关,尤其是昆明市、玉溪市、红河州等区域受影响尤为突出。研究揭示了云南省干旱演变的区域差异和时空分布格局,可为制定地市级差异化干旱应急预案提供数据支撑与理论依据。

       

      Abstract: Yunnan Province is located in the marginal zone of the monsoon region, where droughts have been occurring frequently in recent years and have shown pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity under the combined influences of climate change and complex topography.To accurately characterize regional drought dynamics and enhance drought disaster preparedness, we conducted a quantitative drought monitoring analysis based on high-resolution spatiotemporal data.Using CHIRPS satellite precipitation data and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for the period 2000~2022, we applied the Theil-Sen median trend estimator and the Mann-Kendall test to systematically examine trends in precipitation, drought frequency, drought duration, and spatial distribution characteristics at the prefecture-level city scale across Yunnan Province.The results indicated that southeastern, central, and northwestern Yunnan experienced relatively high drought frequency during 2000~2022, with a statistically significant intensifying trend, the cumulative number of drought events exceeding 15 in these regions.In southeastern Yunnan, the longest drought duration occurred in 2019, lasting up to 8 months, with a minimum SPEI value of -1.8, indicating substantial drought severity.A significant association was identified between decreasing precipitation and increasing drought frequency, with particularly pronounced impacts in Kunming, Yuxi, Honghe Prefecture and other regions.These findings reveal the regional disparities and spatio-temporal patterns of drought evolution in Yunnan Province and provide both a data foundation and theoretical support for the development of differentiated drought emergency response strategies at the prefectural and municipal levels.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回