基于动力学参数的泥石流堆积距离预测模型

    Prediction model for debris flow runout distance based on dynamic parameters

    • 摘要: 传统预测泥石流堆积距离的方法主要通过静力学分析建立经验公式,此方法难以解释具有相同体积和初始高程的泥石流堆积距离不同的现象,忽略了动力学参数对堆积距离的影响。为此,开展水槽实验,在固定的初始高程和水槽坡度的情况下,通过控制变量法研究固相体积分数、颗粒粒径以及体积对泥石流动力学参数(流速、流深)的影响,进而分析流速、流深对堆积距离的影响,最后结合机器学习方法,建立基于流速和流深的泥石流堆积距离预测模型。结果表明:①流速与固相体积分数及颗粒粒径(D50)均呈负相关关系,相关系数分别为-0.68和-0.23。泥石流体积对其流速的影响程度有限。②流深与体积、固相体积分数及颗粒粒径(D50)均呈正相关关系,相关系数分别为0.51、0.61和0.31。③固相体积分数的提高促使碰撞力与摩擦力向黏性力转化,颗粒粒径(D50)增大可提升泥石流内部的碰撞力,形成离散应力,从而抑制流速,增大流深。研究结果明确了流速与流深共同影响泥石流堆积距离,但流速的影响程度更显著,有助于更准确计算泥石流堆积距离。

       

      Abstract: Conventional approaches of predicting debris flow runout distance are predominantly dependent on establishing empirical formulas through static analysis. Such approaches can not explain why debris flows with identical volumes and initial elevations may exhibit markedly different runout distances, as they largely neglect the influence of dynamic parameters on runout. To address this limitation, a series of flume experiments were conducted. Under fixed initial elevation and flume slope, a controlled-variable methodology was adopted to investigate how solid volume fraction, particle size, and total volume affect the dynamic parameters of debris flows (flow velocity and flow depth). The effects of velocity and depth on runout distance were then examined, and a machine-learning-based predictive model for debris flow runout distance was developed based on velocity and depth. The results show that: ① Flow velocity is negatively correlated with both solid volume fraction and median particle size (D50), with correlation coefficients of -0.68 and -0.23, respectively; the influence of debris-flow volume on velocity is limited. ② Flow depth is positively correlated with volume, solid volume fraction, and D50, with correlation coefficients of 0.51, 0.61, and 0.31, respectively. ③ Increasing solid volume fraction promotes a transition from collisional and frictional forces to viscous resistance, whereas increasing D50 enhances internal particle collisions and generates dispersive stress, thereby suppressing velocity and increasing flow depth. These findings demonstrate that debris-flow runout distance is jointly governed by flow velocity and flow depth, with velocity exerting a more pronounced effect, which can improve the accuracy of runout distance estimation.

       

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