水位骤降对边坡稳定性影响的动态演化研究

    Dynamic evolution of slope stability subjected to rapid reservoir water level drawdown

    • 摘要: 水库运行中的水位变动会显著扰动库岸坡体稳定性,其中水位骤降所引发的边坡失稳是威胁库区安全的核心问题。为揭示水位下降速率对边坡稳定性的动态影响机制,以亭子口水利枢纽张家湾边坡为例,基于地质勘查与GNSS监测数据,分析了边坡变形与库水位变化的时空关联,并采用Geo Studio软件模拟了不同水位下降速率条件下的边坡渗流响应与稳定性演变规律。结果表明:①水位下降速率越大,边坡稳定性降低越显著。水位以1 m/d速率下降时,边坡安全系数在12 d内从1.40急剧下降至1.01;而以0.5 m/d速率下降时,安全系数仅降至1.11,降幅明显减缓。②渗流场中压力水头与水力梯度的剧烈变化是导致稳定性下降的主要机制,坡脚剪出口压力水头随水位骤降从287.28 kPa迅速降至95.76 kPa,渗流滞后效应显著削弱滑带抗剪强度。③数值模拟结果与现场监测数据相互印证:2022年2月水位骤降3.61 m对应边坡位移1.99 m,2022年9月水位骤降2.11 m对应位移1.16 m,二者均与模拟预测的水位快速下降后安全系数急剧降低趋势一致。该研究系统阐明了库水位骤降影响边坡稳定性的渗流-力学耦合机制,可为库区边坡动态风险评估与工程防控提供理论依据。

       

      Abstract: Reservoir water level fluctuations significantly affect stability of bank slopes, among which rapid drawdown is a critical factor introducing slope instability and poses a major threat to reservoir safety. To investigate the dynamic influence of drawdown rate on slope stability, this study takes the Zhangjiawan slope at the Tingzikou Hydraulic Project as a case study. Based on geological surveys and GNSS monitoring data, the spatiotemporal correlation between slope deformation and reservoir water level changes was analyzed. Numerical simulations were performed using GeoStudio to examine the seepage response and stability evolution of the slope under various drawdown rates. The results show that: ① A higher drawdown rate leads to a more pronounced reduction in slope stability. When the water level dropped at a rate of 1 m/d, the factor of safety (FoS) sharply decreased from 1.40 to 1.01 within 12 days; in contrast, at a drawdown rate of 0.5 m/d, the FoS only decreased to 1.11, with a notably slower decline. ② Drastic changes in pressure head and hydraulic gradient within the seepage field are the primary mechanisms underlying stability deterioration. During rapid drawdown, the pressure head at the slope toe decreased rapidly from 287.28 kPa to 95.76 kPa, and the seepage lag significantly weakened the shear strength of the sliding zone. ③ The numerical simulation results are consistent with field monitoring data: a rapid drawdown of 3.61 m in February 2022 corresponded to a slope displacement of 1.99 m, while a drawdown of 2.11 m in September 2022 resulted in a displacement of 1.16 m. The above two field observations align with the simulated trend of a sharp decline of the FoS following rapid drawdown. This study systematically elucidates the seepage-mechanical coupling mechanism through which rapid reservoir drawdown affects slope stability, providing a theoretical basis for dynamic risk assessment and engineering prevention and control of reservoir bank slopes.

       

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