建模序列长度对中长期水风光功率模拟精度影响

    Study on impact of sequence length on medium-and long-term hydro-wind-solar simulation accuracy

    • 摘要: 针对水风光模拟效果对建模序列长度的适应性差异问题,开展了传统数据驱动模型与深度学习模型的模拟性能对比研究。建立联合随机模拟模型,以模拟多种长度的径流、风电出力和光伏出力数据序列;基于3种传统数据驱动模型(RF、SVM、GKR)以及6种深度学习模型(LSTM、GRU、CNN、BiLSTM、iTransformer、TCN),分别建立水风光功率模拟模型,对比分析模型模拟性能对不同建模序列数据长度的响应,并在黄河上游水风光基地开展了案例研究。结果表明:整体来看,SVM模型模拟结果精准性较高,测试集平均R2达0.878。对于径流和风电功率,最优数据序列长度为70 a; 而对于光伏功率,多数模型在序列长度70 a和100 a时表现最佳。研究可为工程实际模型优选提供参考依据,并在各种资料工况下给出最优的资料长度参考值。

       

      Abstract: To address the issue of differences in the adaptability of hydro-wind-solar power simulation performance to modeling sequence lengths, a joint stochastic simulation model is first established to generate runoff, wind power, and photovoltaic output data sequences of various lengths. Then, three traditional data-driven models (RF, SVM, GKR) and six deep learning models (LSTM, GRU, CNN, BiLSTM, iTransformer, TCN) are adopted to establish hydro-wind-solar power simulation models, respectively. The responses of model simulation performance to different modeling sequence lengths are compared and analyzed. Taking the hydro-wind-solar base in the upper Yellow River as a case study, the results show that: the SVM model achieves high simulation accuracy, with an average test set R2 of 0.878. For runoff and wind power, the optimal data sequence length is 70 years; for photovoltaic power, most models perform best at sequence lengths of 70 years and 100 years. This study can provide a reference for model selection in practical engineering, and offer optimal data length reference values under various data conditions.

       

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