重大水利水电工程征地移民管理复杂性演化分析

    Evolutionary analysis on complexity of land acquisition and resettlement management of major water conservancy and hydropower projects

    • 摘要: 重大水利水电工程征地移民管理是一项关系工程建设推进、地区社会稳定与经济发展的系统工作,其过程呈现出复杂性特征。结合海南省重大水利水电工程的征地移民管理工作实践,采用扎根理论方法,识别出重大水利水电工程征地移民管理复杂性的3个维度——内容复杂性、组织工作复杂性与过程复杂性,并进一步提出8个关键影响因素(土地权属关系的复杂性、专业项目处理的复杂性、征地安置补偿的复杂性、参与主体多元性、利益诉求多样化、职责理解偏差、环境不确定性和多元目标的动态平衡),然后通过构建模糊认知图(FCM)模型对各因素之间的动态演化进行系统分析。研究表明,这些影响因素均对征地移民管理复杂性有重要影响,其中利益诉求多样化、多元目标的动态平衡和参与主体多元性的影响作用最为显著。结合FCM预测分析、诊断分析和敏感性分析的结果,提出了建立有效沟通机制、多维诉求采集机制、差异化协商机制、分级预警机制等一系列应对策略。

       

      Abstract: Land acquisition and resettlement management of major water conservancy and hydropower projects is a systematic endeavor that affects project construction progress, regional social stability, and economic development, and is characterized by complexity. Based on management experiences from land acquisition and resettlement in mega water conservancy and hydropower projects in Hainan Province, this study adopts the grounded theory approach to identify eight influencing factors across three complexity dimensions: object complexity, organizational complexity, and process complexity. These factors include the complexity of land ownership relationships, the complexity of specialized project handling, the complexity of land acquisition and resettlement compensation, the diversity of participating entities, diversified interest demands, deviations in role understanding, environmental uncertainty, and the dynamic balance of multiple objectives. Subsequently, a Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) model is constructed for evolutionary analysis. The results show that all these influencing factors significantly affect the complexity of land acquisition and resettlement management, among which diversified interest demands, the dynamic balance of multiple objectives, and the diversity of participating entities are the most influential ones. Based on the results of FCM predictive analysis, diagnostic analysis, and sensitivity analysis, coping strategies are proposed, including establishing effective communication mechanisms, multi-dimensional demand collection mechanisms, differentiated negotiation mechanisms, and graded early warning mechanisms. The research findings help deepen the understanding on complexity of land acquisition and resettlement management in mega water conservancy and hydropower projects and provide practical suggestions for such management.

       

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