大高滩水库溃坝洪水模拟及损失评估研究

    Research on dam break flood simulation and loss assessment of Dagaotan Reservoir

    • 摘要: 水库溃坝洪水具有突发性强、破坏范围广的特点,科学评估其风险对下游区域防灾减灾至关重要。现有的一维模型无法反映洪水横向动态,而传统的二维模型又存在计算效率无法满足实时预警的问题。为此,以大高滩水库为例,将GPU加速的二维模型与渐进式溃坝边界条件相结合,构建了一种高效精准的水库下游洪水模拟与损失评估方法。该方法结合水库坝体材质,采用逐渐溃坝计算模型计算不同溃坝工况下的溃口流量,作为二维水动力学模型的流量边界,再利用高分辨率DEM数据为水动力学模型网格赋值,用土地利用数据为模型糙率参数赋值,模拟淹没水深、淹没范围和淹没历时等洪水风险因素,并使用基于GIS的空间权重叠置分析方法评估经济损失。结果表明:大高滩水库下游全溃洪水先蔓延至低洼区并积水,随后淹没范围与水深逐渐扩大,达最大后逐步消退;区域洪水演进过程呈上游受冲强烈、下游滞洪缓冲的规律,上游特征点水深峰值出现早、数值高且积水可完全消退,下游特征点水深峰值延后、数值低且积水也可消退,河边低洼区域则因地形影响持续24 h滞水;在设计洪水位局部溃坝、校核洪水位局部溃坝、全溃3种工况下,淹没水深与面积呈递增趋势,且总淹没面积的显著增加主要源于高水深区域面积扩大;溃坝严重程度与经济损失呈正相关,全溃工况造成的经济损失(4.39亿元)远超局部溃坝工况,且其对民居和农业的破坏性尤为突出。研究成果可为大高滩水库下游的防洪避险提供参考,还可为相关部门制定科学的应急方案和减灾措施提供支持。

       

      Abstract: Reservoir dam break flood is characterized by its sudden onset, intense destructive power, and wide impact range.Scientifically assessing its risk is therefore crucial for effective disaster prevention and mitigation in downstream regions.However, while existing 1D models cannot capture lateral flood dynamics, conventional 2D models lack the computational efficiency required for real-time early warning applications.Therefore, taking the Dagaotan Reservoir as an example, a GPU-accelerated 2D model is combined with the progressive dam-break boundary conditions to construct an efficient and precise method for simulating downstream flood and loss assessment of the reservoir.This method takes into account physical properties of dam materials and uses the gradually collapsing dam model to calculate the breach flow under different dam-break conditions as the flow boundary of the 2D hydrodynamic model.Then, high-resolution DEM data are used to define the grid of the hydrodynamic model, land use data is used to define the roughness coefficient of the model, and the flood risk factors such as inundation water depth, inundation extent and inundation duration are simulated.The spatial weight overlay analysis method based on GIS is used to evaluate the economic losses.The results show that the full-dam-break flood in the downstream of Dagaotan Reservoir first spreads to the low-lying areas, where water accumulates, then the inundation range and water depth gradually expand until reaching a maximum, after which they gradually recede.The evolution process of regional floods follows the pattern of strong erosion in the upstream and flood buffering in the downstream.The peak water depth at the characteristic points in the upstream occurs earlier, is higher, and the accumulated water can fully subside; the peak water depth at the characteristic points in the downstream occurs later, is lower, and the accumulated water can also subside.The low-lying areas along the river continue to be stagnant for 24 hours due to terrain influence.Under the three scenarios of local dam-break during design flood level, local dam-break during check flood level, and full-dam-break, the inundation water depth and area increase progressively, and the significant increase in the total inundation area mainly results from the expansion of area with high water depth.The severity of dam-break is positively correlated with economic losses.The economic losses caused by the full-dam-break scheme (439 million yuan) are far greater than those of the local dam-break scheme, and its destructive impact on residential areas and agriculture is particularly prominent.The research results can provide a reference for flood prevention and emergency evacuation in the downstream of Dagaotan Reservoir, and can also provide support for relevant departments to formulate scientific emergency plans and disaster reduction measures.

       

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