Abstract:
Accurately assessing the regional flood risk level is of great significance for reducing flood disaster losses.A coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic model was used to simulate river discharge variations under different engineering conditions.A flood risk evaluation index system was then constructed from three dimensions: hazard-bearing body resilience, hazard-bearing body exposure, and flood occurrence probability.A game theory combination weighting method and an improved Multi-Attributive Border Approximation Comparison (MABAC) model were employed to analyze the flood risk level in the Yiluo River Basin under different engineering conditions.The results show that the indicators of maximum discharge of the nearest river system, population density and terrain slope have the greatest influence on flood risk.The flood risk level in the Yiluo River Basin exhibits a spatial pattern of "low in the west and high in the east".Without considering hydraulic engineering conditions, Shangluo City, Sanmenxia City, and Weinan City exhibit low flood risk levels, while Zhengzhou City and Luoyang City are classified as medium-risk areas.However, when accounting for the mitigating effects of water conservancy projects, all cities in the basin show reduced risk levels, with the high-risk area in the eastern region decreasing by approximately 35%.This study demonstrates the importance of incorporating water conservancy projects′ impacts in flood risk assessments, providing a scientific basis for refined and dynamic flood management strategies.