基于博弈论组合赋权和改进MABAC的洪水风险分析

    Flood risk analysis based on game theory combination weighting method and improved MABAC

    • 摘要: 精准评估地区洪水风险程度对降低洪涝灾害损失意义重大。利用水文水动力耦合模型计算不同工程条件下河道流量变化,从承灾体韧性、承灾体暴露性和洪水概率3个维度构建洪水评价指标体系,利用博弈论组合赋权和改进多属性边界面积比较(MABAC)模型分析伊洛河流域不同工程条件下的洪水风险等级。结果表明:最近水系最大流量、人口密度和坡度3个指标对洪水风险影响程度最大;流域内洪水风险呈现“西低东高”空间分异格局,在不考虑水利工程条件时,商洛市、三门峡市和渭南市洪水风险为较低风险等级,郑州市和洛阳市为中风险等级;考虑水利工程影响后,流域内所有城市洪水风险等级均为较低风险等级,且东部洪水高风险面积减少约35%。考虑水利工程条件的洪水风险评估可为精细化洪水管理提供依据。

       

      Abstract: Accurately assessing the regional flood risk level is of great significance for reducing flood disaster losses.A coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic model was used to simulate river discharge variations under different engineering conditions.A flood risk evaluation index system was then constructed from three dimensions: hazard-bearing body resilience, hazard-bearing body exposure, and flood occurrence probability.A game theory combination weighting method and an improved Multi-Attributive Border Approximation Comparison (MABAC) model were employed to analyze the flood risk level in the Yiluo River Basin under different engineering conditions.The results show that the indicators of maximum discharge of the nearest river system, population density and terrain slope have the greatest influence on flood risk.The flood risk level in the Yiluo River Basin exhibits a spatial pattern of "low in the west and high in the east".Without considering hydraulic engineering conditions, Shangluo City, Sanmenxia City, and Weinan City exhibit low flood risk levels, while Zhengzhou City and Luoyang City are classified as medium-risk areas.However, when accounting for the mitigating effects of water conservancy projects, all cities in the basin show reduced risk levels, with the high-risk area in the eastern region decreasing by approximately 35%.This study demonstrates the importance of incorporating water conservancy projects′ impacts in flood risk assessments, providing a scientific basis for refined and dynamic flood management strategies.

       

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