长江流域高温事件识别中两类阈值方法对比研究

    Comparison of two threshold methods for identifying regional high-temperature events in Changjiang River Basin

    • 摘要: 全球气候变化背景下,极端高温事件频发加剧了长江流域水资源供需矛盾。为客观揭示长江流域高温事件时空分布特征及其演变趋势,利用流域735个国家气象观测站1961~2022年逐日最高气温资料,分别采用绝对阈值法和相对阈值法识别长江上游、中下游暖季区域性高温事件,并从发生频次、时空分布、综合强度等多个维度对比分析两类阈值方法的适用性与敏感性。结果表明:①绝对阈值法在长江上游和中下游分别识别出299次和383次高温事件,相对阈值法在长江上游和中下游分别识别出423次和410次高温事件,相对阈值法对长江上游高温事件更敏感。②绝对阈值法识别出的高温事件集中于7~8月,相对阈值法识别出的高温事件在5~9月分布较均匀,绝对阈值法对极端高温时段响应更灵敏。③绝对阈值法识别的高温事件持续时间在7.1~8.7 d之间,相对阈值法识别的高温事件平均持续时间仅5.4 d,绝对阈值法对高温过程持续时间识别更稳定。④两种方法识别出的典型高温年一致率为60%,均揭示出近60年来区域性高温事件频次和强度呈显著上升趋势,21世纪以来高温事件极端性显著增强。相对阈值法对气候变化响应更敏感,而绝对阈值法对高强度极端高温事件刻画更突出。研究成果可为长江流域高温事件研究和应对提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Against the backdrop of global climate change, the frequent occurrence of extreme high-temperature events has exacerbated the water resource supply-demand imbalance in the Changjiang River Basin.To objectively characterize the spatiotemporal distribution and evolutionary trends of high-temperature events in the Changjiang River Basin, this study utilized daily maximum temperature data from 735 national meteorological stations within the basin from 1961 to 2022.Regional high-temperature events during the warm season in the upper and middle-lower reaches of the Changjiang River were identified using both absolute and relative threshold approaches.A comparative analysis of the applicability and sensitivity of these two approaches was performed from multiple perspectives, including occurrence frequency, spatiotemporal distribution, and comprehensive intensity.The results indicate that: ① The absolute threshold approach identified 299 and 383 high-temperature events in the upper and middle-lower reaches of the Changjiang River, respectively, whereas the relative threshold approach identified 423 and 410 events.The relative threshold approach was more sensitive to high-temperature events in the upper reaches of the Changjiang River.② Events identified by the absolute threshold approach were concentrated in July and August, whereas those identified by the relative threshold approach were more evenly distributed from May to September.The absolute threshold approach was more responsive to periods of extreme high temperature.③ The duration of events identified by the absolute threshold approach ranged from 7.1 to 8.7 days, compared with an average of 5.4 days for events identified by the relative threshold approach.The absolute threshold approach enabled more stable identification of the duration of high-temperature events.④ The consistency rate of typical high-temperature years identified by the two approaches reaches 60%.Both approaches indicated that the frequency and intensity of regional high-temperature events have exhibited a significantly increasing trend over the past 60 years.The extremity of high-temperature events has increased notably since the 21st century.The relative threshold approach is more sensitive to climate change, whereas the absolute threshold approach is superior in characterizing high-intensity extreme high-temperature events.The research findings can provide a scientific reference for research and adaptive responses to high-temperature events in river basins.

       

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