金沙江上游径流变化特征及驱动机制分析

    Analysis of variation characteristics and driving mechanisms of runoff in upper reaches of Jinsha River

    • 摘要: 金沙江上游径流变化对长江流域水资源管理至关重要,其长期变化受多种气候因子影响,分析其影响因子及驱动机制具有重要意义。基于站点数据、全球海温数据和再分析数据,分析了金沙江上游径流的时空变化特征,揭示了太平洋和大西洋海温异常对金沙江上游融雪影响关键期(4~6月)及主汛期(7~9月)径流的驱动机制。结果表明:①金沙江上游年平均径流量呈显著波动上升趋势。②径流补给的主控因子具有显著的月尺度差异,4~6月,季节性积雪消融对径流的贡献率显著提升;7~9月,降水则成为控制石鼓站径流变化的主导因子。③海温异常对径流的驱动作用存在区域与季节分异,3月赤道太平洋冷海温异常通过在金沙江上游上空激发异常低压系统与暖平流,显著增强融雪期降水与积雪消融,进而导致径流增加;6月北大西洋三极型(NAT)海温异常则通过调控欧亚遥相关波列,强化西南风水汽输送,促进主汛期降水增多,进而使径流增加。研究成果可为金沙江上游季节尺度径流预报提供理论支撑。

       

      Abstract: The runoff variation in the upper reaches of the Jinsha River is crucial to water resource management in the Changjiang River Basin.Its long-term changes are influenced by multiple climatic factors; therefore it is necessary to analyze its driving factors and mechanisms.Based on station data, global sea surface temperature (SST) data, and reanalysis data, this study analyzed spatiotemporal characteristics of runoff in the upper Jinsha River, and revealed the driving mechanisms of Pacific and Atlantic SST anomalies on runoff during the key snowmelt period (April to June) and the main flood season (July to September).The results indicate that: ① The annual mean runoff in the upper Jinsha River shows a significant fluctuating upward trend. ② The primary controlling factors of runoff recharge exhibit significant monthly differences.From April to June, the contribution of seasonal snowmelt to runoff increases significantly, while precipitation becomes the dominant factor controlling runoff variation at the Shigu Station from July to September. ③ The effects of SST anomalies on runoff vary by region and season.In March, cold SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific trigger an anomalous low-pressure system and warm advection over the upper Jinsha River, which significantly enhances precipitation and snowmelt during the snowmelt season, thereby increasing runoff.In June, the North Atlantic Tripole (NAT) SST anomalies modulates the Eurasian teleconnection wave train, thereby intensifying southwesterly moisture transport and promoting increased precipitation during the main flood season, ultimately leading to higher runoff.These findings provide theoretical support for seasonal runoff prediction in the upper Jinsha River.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回