“三水统筹”治理绩效评价及影响因素研究——以长江中下游地区为例

    Study on evaluation and influencing factors of coordinated management of "water resources, water environment and water ecology": case of middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River

    • 摘要: 受经济社会活动影响,长江流域面临着资源短缺、污染频发与水土流失问题,水资源与生态环境的保护亟待加强。基于“自然-社会”二元水循环、陆海统筹与“四水四定”理论,构建由可持续系统、屏障系统、涵养系统、经济系统、社会系统5个子系统组成的水资源-水环境-水生态统筹(以下简称“三水统筹”)治理绩效评价指标体系,运用熵权-TOPSIS模型和障碍度模型,分析了2008~2023年长江中下游地区25个地级及以上城市“三水统筹”治理绩效的时空变化及影响因素。结果显示:①长江中下游地区“三水统筹”治理绩效平均得分为0.162 4,位于中等偏上水平,其中,中游地区平均得分0.174 3,治理绩效相比下游地区平均得分0.155 7略好,且均存在较大时空差异。②长江中下游地区“三水统筹”治理绩效的年均增幅基本为正,极差系数也较稳定,治理绩效总体水平呈现不断增长趋势,其中上海市治理绩效得分在研究期间长期保持较高水平,成效突出,而九江市、马鞍山市、合肥市、南昌市则呈现波动下降趋势。③影响长江中下游地区“三水统筹”治理绩效的主要障碍因素按障碍度大小排序为涵养系统>社会系统>屏障系统>经济系统>可持续系统,不同城市间的障碍因素各有差异。针对不同区域确定治理侧重点,提出修复自然屏障、完善顶层设计、发展智慧监测等管理对策。研究成果可为长江中下游地区水资源管理、水生态环境保护及可持续发展提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Affected by economic and social activities, the Changjiang River Basin faces resource shortages, frequent pollution incidents, and soil erosion. The protection of water resources and ecological environment has become an urgent issue. Based on the theories of the "natural-social" dualistic water cycle, land-sea coordination, and the "Four Determinations by Water" (city, land, population, and production), an evaluation index system for the governance performance of coordinated management of "water resources, water environment and water ecology" ("Three Waters Coordination") was constructed, comprising five subsystems: the sustainability subsystem, barrier subsystem, conservation subsystem, economic subsystem, and social subsystem. The entropy-weighted TOPSIS model and the obstacle degree model were employed to analyze the spatio-temporal variations and influencing factors of the performance of "Three Waters Coordination" in 25 prefecture-level and above cities within the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River from 2008 to 2023. The results was follows: ① The average governance performance score in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River was 0.162 4, which was at an upper-medium level. Specifically, the average score in the middle reaches (0.174 3) was slightly higher than that in the lower reaches (0.155 7), indicating marginally better governance performance, and both regions exhibited marked spatiotemporal disparities. ② Throughout the study period, the average annual growth rate of governance performance in the region remained generally positive, and the coefficient of range was relatively stable, showing a continuous upward trend in overall governance performance. Notably, Shanghai City consistently achieved high scores and outstanding performance, while Jiujiang, Ma′anshan, Hefei, and Nanchang City exhibited a fluctuating downward trend. ③ The ranking of obstacle degree for the main factors affecting governance was: conservation subsystem > social subsystem > barrier subsystem > economic subsystem > sustainability subsystem, and the dominant obstacle factors varied among cities. Based on these findings, region specific governance priorities are proposed, including restoring natural barriers, improving top-level design, and developing cloud-based management, thus providing a reference for water resource management, water ecological environment protection, and sustainable development in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River.

       

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