多模型融合的桥梁壅水计算框架构建与验证

    Construction and verification of multi-model fusion computational framework for bridge backwater prediction

    • 摘要: 针对单一桥梁壅水计算方法在复杂地形下存在误差可控性差、计算效率低等问题,提出了一种基于“分工-反馈-集成”架构的多模型融合计算框架。该框架融合HEC-RAS一维模型、MIKE 21二维水动力模型及3种壅水计算经验公式,通过动态数据同化机制实现模型间的参数交互与误差抑制,并引入贝叶斯模型平均(BMA)方法进行权重自适应优化,从而在保证高效率计算的同时提升壅水预测的精度。以洮河卓尼段6座桥梁为例,选取不同频率的洪水工况对计算框架进行了验证。结果表明:通过3种检验方法对比分析,在多种洪水频率和桥墩类型下,利用此融合框架计算的壅水误差波动范围最小,综合精度最高;融合框架计算耗时仅10.5 min,较全流域单一数值模拟效率提升30%以上;融合框架规避了经验公式的盲目性和单一数值模型的局限性,提供了一个取值更合理、机理更清晰的壅水长度预测值,既能避免因过度预估造成的工程浪费,也能防止低估带来的防洪安全隐患;河道关键参数发生扰动时,融合框架的最大相对误差最低,且此框架对异质桥墩结构适应性良好。该融合框架为桥梁防洪安全评估提供了一种高精度、高效率的计算方法,可为复杂河道环境中桥梁壅水分析与工程优化设计提供技术参考。

       

      Abstract: Single-model bridge backwater calculation methods have reputations of poor error controllability and low computational efficiency when applied to complex terrain. To address these issues, this paper proposes a multi-model fusion computational framework based on a task division-feedback-integration architecture. The framework integrates the HEC-RAS one-dimensional model, the MIKE 21 two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, and three empirical formulas for backwater calculation. A dynamic data assimilation mechanism enables parameter interaction and error suppression among the models. The Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method is introduced to adaptively optimize weights, thereby improving backwater prediction accuracy while maintaining high computational efficiency. Taking six bridges in the Zhuoni section of the Taohe River as a case study, the proposed framework was verified under different flood recurrence frequency conditions. The results show that, through comparative analysis of three testing methods, the fusion framework exhibits the smallest error fluctuation range and the highest comprehensive accuracy across various flood frequencies and pier types. The computation time of the fusion framework is only 10.5 minutes, which is more than 30% faster than that of a single numerical simulation. The fusion framework avoids the blindness of empirical formulas and the limitations of single numerical models, providing more reasonable estimates and clearer mechanisms for backwater length prediction. This not only prevents engineering waste caused by overestimation but also mitigates flood control safety hazards due to underestimation. When key river channel parameters are disturbed, the fusion framework achieves the lowest maximum relative error and demonstrates good adaptability to heterogeneous pier structures. Overall, the proposed fusion framework offers a high-precision and high-efficiency calculation method for bridge flood control safety assessment, providing technical support for bridge backwater analysis and engineering optimization in complex river environments.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回