水位骤降对边坡稳定性影响的动态演化研究

    Dynamic Evolution Study of Rapid Water Level Drawdown Impact on Slope Stability

    • 摘要: 水库运行引发的水位变化会对库岸坡体产生显著扰动效应,这种动态水作用所产生的扰动效应造成的库坡失稳问题已成为威胁水库安全的核心问题,因此,研究库水位变动对库岸边坡稳定性的影响具有深远意义。①本文以亭子口水利枢纽张家湾边坡为研究对象,围绕库水位变化对边坡稳定性的影响展开系统研究,通过地质条件分析与GNSS监测数据揭示边坡变形与水位变化的时空关系,利用Geo-Studio软件模拟不同水位下降速率下的边坡响应过程,探讨库水位以不同下降速度变化后边坡稳定性的动态演化规律。研究结果表明:(1)库水位下降速率越大,对边坡稳定性的影响越显著,通过多种方法的综合分析,明确了库水位骤降速率与边坡稳定性之间的具体量化关系。在水位以1m/d速率下降时,边坡的安全系数在12天内由1.40急剧降低至1.01;而当水位下降速率为0.5m/d时,安全系数在相同水位区间下降至1.11,表现出安全系数下降速率的明显减缓。(2)渗流场中压力水头与渗流水力梯度的剧烈变化是导致边坡稳定性降低的主要驱动机制,渗流滞后效应诱发滑带抗剪强度降低,坡脚剪出口压力水头由骤降前最高水位的287.28kPa迅速下降至最低水位时的95.76kPa。(3)库水位变化数据、库坡GNSS位移监测数据与数值模拟结果相互验证。2022年2月库水位骤降3.61m,GNSS位移监测数据显示边坡位移接近1.99m;2022年9月库水位骤降2.11m后,边坡位移变形达1.16m,这与数值模型中预测的水位快速骤降后安全系数迅速降低趋势高度吻合。本文揭示了库水位骤降对库坡稳定性的复杂影响规律,为库区边坡动态风险评估提供了新视角。

       

      Abstract: The water level change triggered by reservoir operation will produce significant disturbance effect on the slope of the reservoir bank, and the slope instability caused by the disturbance effect of this dynamic water action has become the core problem threatening the safety of the reservoir, therefore, the study of the impact of the reservoir water level change on the stability of the slope of the reservoir bank is of far-reaching significance.① In this paper, the Zhangjiawan slope of Tingzikou Water Conservancy Hub is taken as the research object, and a systematic study is carried out around the influence of reservoir water level change on slope stability. The temporal and spatial relationship between slope deformation and water level change is revealed through geological condition analysis and GNSS monitoring data, and Geo-Studio software is used to simulate the response process of slopes with different water level decline rates, and the dynamic evolution law of slope stability is explored after the water level is changed with different decline rates. The results of the study show that: (1) The greater the rate of water level decline, the more significant the impact on slope stability. Through comprehensive analysis using multiple methods, a quantitative relationship between the rate of rapid water level decline and slope stability is established. When the water level declines at a rate of 1 m/day, the safety factor of the slope sharply decreases from 1.40 to 1.01 within 12 days. In contrast, at a water level decline rate of 0.5 m/day, the safety factor decreases to 1.11 within the same water level range, demonstrating a significantly slower rate of decrease. (2) The drastic changes in the pressure head and hydraulic gradient of the seepage field are identified as the primary driving mechanisms for the reduction in slope stability. The delayed effects of seepage induce a decrease in shear strength along the sliding zone, with the pressure head at the foot of the slope rapidly dropping from a maximum of 287.28 kPa at the highest water level to a minimum of 95.76 kPa at the lowest water level. (3) The consistency among reservoir water level fluctuations, GNSS-monitored embankment slope displacements, and numerical simulation results was systematically validated through integrated data analysis. A 3.61 m water level drop in February 2022 was followed by a slope displacement of approximately 1.99 m, as indicated by GNSS monitoring data. In September 2022, after a 2.11 m water level drop, the slope displacement reached 1.16 m. These results closely match the trends predicted by the numerical model, where the safety factor rapidly decreases following a rapid drop in water levels. This paper reveals the complex influence law of sudden drop of reservoir water level on the stability of reservoir slopes, and provides a new perspective for the dynamic risk assessment of reservoir slopes.

       

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