多源降水产品驱动的喀斯特中小流域日径流模拟

    Assessment of daily runoff simulation driven by multi-source precipitation products in small-to-medium karst watershed

    • 摘要: 资料短缺是山区流域开展水资源开发利用保护面临的重要问题,但高时空分辨率的监测系统多在2010年附近建成。基于多源数融合的降水产品具有长序列和高分辨率等优势,将其与水文模型结合是短期内解决上述问题的途径之一。研究以喀斯特区域的典型中小流域为对象,以分布式水文模型SWAT为载体,以观测数据(OBS)和三组降水产品(MSWEP、ERA5、CHM_PRE)为模型驱动,从径流模拟精度的多尺度评价、降水精度与径流精度的一致性特征和参数敏感性特征及合理性三个维度进行了系统分析,其结论如下:基于三组降水产品模拟日径流的精度总体较好,但在雨季5-10月显著高于非雨季,CHM_PRE在不同月份表现稳定性更好,综合表现最优,MSWEP在非雨季表现较差。降水数据的精度决定水文模型的表现,二者一致性好;但按照不同降雨等级对比时,径流模拟精度高于降水序列精度,原因是径流受前期水文过程的综合影响,而降水事件相对独立,也表明这种误差分析不够合理。基于不同降水产品驱动时,显著敏感的参数稳定,均能较好地反映关键水文过程;但模型最优时所率定的参数,OBS和CHM_PRE驱动时参数更加合理。上述结果可为降水产品的优选与融合提供依据,更好地解决山区水文资料短缺问题。

       

      Abstract: Data scarcity poses a critical challenge to water resources development, utilization, and protection in mountainous basins, where high spatio-temporal resolution monitoring systems were not widely established until around 2010. Multi-source precipitation products, which offer long-term coverage and high spatio-temporal resolution, can be integrated with hydrological models as a near-term solution to this issue. This study targeted a typical small-to-medium karst watershed and employed the SWAT distributed hydrological model driven by ground observation data (OBS) and three precipitation products (MSWEP, ERA5, CHM_PRE). A systematic analysis was conducted from three perspectives: multi-scale assessment of runoff simulation accuracy, consistency between precipitation accuracy and runoff accuracy, and the sensitivity and rationality of model parameters. The results indicate that daily runoff simulations driven by the three precipitation products generally achieved good accuracy, with significantly higher performance during the rainy season (May-October) than in the dry season. CHM_PRE exhibited better stability across different months and demonstrated the best overall performance, whereas MSWEP performed poorly during the dry season. Although precipitation accuracy largely determined model performance and showed good consistency with runoff simulation results, runoff accuracy exceeded precipitation accuracy when evaluated by rainfall intensity classes. This discrepancy is attributed to the integrated influence of antecedent hydrological processes on runoff, in contrast to the relatively independent nature of precipitation events, suggesting limitations in such error analysis. The set of significantly sensitive parameters remained stable across different precipitation products and effectively reflected key hydrological processes; however, parameters calibrated under OBS and CHM_PRE exhibited greater physical plausibility. These findings provide a basis for optimizing and merging precipitation products, thereby helping to mitigate hydrological data scarcity in mountainous regions.

       

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