建模序列长度对中长期水风光功率模拟精度影响

    Study on the Impact of Sequence Length on the Medium-and Long-Term Hydro-Wind-Solar Simulation Accuracy

    • 摘要: 针对水风光模拟效果对建模序列长度的适应性差异的问题,首先建立联合随机模拟模型模拟出多种长度的径流、风电出力和光伏出力数据序列;然后,基于3种传统数据驱动模型(包括RF、SVM、GKR),以及6种深度学习模型(包括LSTM、GRU、CNN、BiLSTM、iTransformer、TCN)分别建立模拟模型,对比分析模型模拟性能对不同建模序列数据长度的响应。以黄河上游水风光基地为研究案例,结果表明:整体来看,SVM模型模拟结果精准性较高,测试集平均R2达到0.878。对于径流和风电功率,最优数据序列长度为70年;而对于光伏功率,多数模型在70年和100年时表现最佳。本研究为工程实际提供模型优选的参考依据,并在各种资料工况下给出最优的资料长度参考值。

       

      Abstract: Aiming at the problem that the simulation effect of hydro-wind-solar systems has different adaptabilities to different models and different data lengths, a joint stochastic simulation model is first established to simulate runoff, wind power output, and photovoltaic power output data sequences of various lengths. The maximum mutual information coefficient method (MIC) is used to select the optimal time lag. Then, based on traditional data-driven models including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Gaussian Kernel Regression (GKR), and deep learning models (LSTM, GRU, CNN, BiLSTM, iTransformer, TCN), simulation models are respectively established. The responses of the models' simulation performances to the input of historical data with different lengths are compared and analyzed, and the simulation accuracy of the models and their adaptability to hydro-wind-solar simulation objects are verified. Taking the hydro-wind-solar base in the upper Yellow River as a research case, the results show that the SVM model has relatively high accuracy, with an average R² of 0.878 in the test set. For runoff and wind power, the optimal data sequence length is 70 years; while for photovoltaic power, most models perform best at 70 years and 100 years. This study provides a reference for engineering simulation to optimize models and gives the reference values of the optimal data length under various data conditions.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回