多模型融合的桥梁壅水计算框架构建与验证

    Construction and verification of multi-model fusion computational framework for bridge backwater prediction

    • 摘要: 针对单一桥梁壅水计算方法在复杂地形下存在误差可控性差、计算效率低等问题,本文提出一种基于“分工-反馈-集成”架构的多模型融合计算框架。该框架融合HEC-RAS一维模型、MIKE 21二维水动力模型及三种壅水计算经验公式,通过动态数据同化机制实现模型间的参数交互与误差抑制,并引入贝叶斯模型平均(BMA)方法进行权重自适应优化,从而在保证高效率计算的同时提升壅水预测的精度。以洮河卓尼段六座桥梁为例,选取不同频率的洪水工况对计算框架进行验证。结果表明:通过三种检验方法对比分析,融合框架多种洪水频率和桥墩类型下的误差波动范围最小,综合精度最高;融合框架计算耗时仅10.5 min,较全流域单一数值模拟效率提升30%以上;融合框架规避了经验公式的盲目性和单一数值模型的局限性,提供了一个取值更合理、机理更清晰的壅水长度预测值,既能避免因过度预估造成的工程浪费,也能防止低估带来的防洪安全隐患;鲁棒性验证表明,河道关键参数发生扰动时,融合框架的最大相对误差最低,且异质桥墩结构适应性良好。该融合框架为桥梁防洪安全评估提供高精度、高效率的计算方法,可为复杂河道环境中桥梁壅水分析与工程优化设计提供技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: To address the issues of poor error controllability and low computational efficiency in single-bridge backwater calculation methods under complex topography, this paper proposes a multi-model fusion computational framework based on a “division-feedback-integration” architecture. This framework integrates the HEC-RAS one-dimensional model, the MIKE 21 two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, and three empirical backwater calculation formulas. It employs a dynamic data assimilation mechanism to achieve parameter interaction and error suppression among models, while incorporating Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) for adaptive weight optimization. This approach enhances backwater prediction accuracy while ensuring high computational efficiency. Using six bridges along the Zhuoni section of the Tao River as case studies, the computational framework was validated under flood conditions of varying frequencies. Results indicate: The integrated framework avoids the blindness of empirical formulas and the limitations of single numerical models, providing more reasonable and mechanistically clear backwater length predictions. This approach prevents both engineering waste from overestimation and flood safety hazards from underestimation. Robustness verification indicates that when key river parameters are disturbed, the integrated framework exhibits the lowest maximum relative error and demonstrates excellent adaptability to heterogeneous pier structures. This integrated framework delivers a high-precision, high-efficiency computational method for bridge flood safety assessment, providing technical support for floodwater backwater analysis and optimized engineering design in complex river environments.

       

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