瀑布沟、紫坪铺水库蓄能变化规律及电力优化启示

    Energy storage variation patterns and power optimization insights of Pubugou and Zipingpu reservoirs

    • 摘要: (目的)为制定基于蓄能调度的电力优化策略并揭示跨流域水库蓄能规律差异对电力生产的指导作用,(方法)以瀑布沟和紫坪铺水库为研究对象,基于2021-2024年逐旬水位数据,构建蓄能值计算模型,量化蓄能比、消落速率等关键指标,系统对比分析了两库的来水电量特性、蓄能变化趋势及指标差异。(结果)结果表明:瀑布沟来水电量丰枯比(4.9)显著高于紫坪铺(3.4),其蓄能调节潜能更大(最大蓄能比变化空间0.9737 vs. 0.9122);两库汛期均观测到反常态消落现象,与极端气候事件(如2022年高温干旱)引发的来水电量剧烈波动及多重调度需求密切相关;瀑布沟的强调节潜力与紫坪铺的区位优势具备互补性。(结论)基于蓄能指标差异构建的跨流域协同调度框架及蓄能比动态阈值,可为优化丰枯期电力分配、提升电网韧性及防洪-发电-生态多目标协同调度提供理论依据和决策支持。

       

      Abstract: (Objective) To formulate power optimization strategies based on energy storage scheduling and reveal the guiding role of cross-basin reservoir energy storage patterns in power production,(Methods) this study takes Pubugou and Zipingpu reservoirs as research objects. Utilizing dekadal water level data from 2021 to 2024, an energy storage calculation model was constructed to quantify key indicators such as energy storage ratio and drawdown rate. Systematic comparative analysis was conducted on inflow power characteristics, energy storage trends, and indicator differences between the two reservoirs.(Results) The results indicate: Pubugou exhibits a significantly higher inflow energy-to-flow ratio (4.9) compared to Zipingpu (3.4), indicating greater energy storage regulation potential (maximum variation range of energy storage ratio: 0.9737 vs. 0.9122). Abnormal drawdown phenomena during flood seasons at both reservoirs are closely associated with extreme climate events (e.g., the 2022 high-temperature drought), which triggered drastic inflow power fluctuations and multi-objective scheduling demands. The strong regulation capacity of Pubugou and the locational advantage of Zipingpu demonstrate significant complementarity.(Conclusion) A cross-basin collaborative scheduling framework and dynamic thresholds for energy storage ratio, developed based on these energy storage indicator differences, provide theoretical basis and decision-making support for optimizing wet-dry season power distribution, enhancing grid resilience, and achieving coordinated multi-objective scheduling (flood control-power generation-ecology).

       

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