金下梯级水库运行期设计洪水及汛控水位研究

    Design floods and flood control water levels in operation period of cascade reservoirs in lower Jinsha River

    • 摘要: 上游水库的联合调度已改变了金沙江下游梯级水库的天然来水来沙条件,原设计洪水和汛限水位无法适应新时期水旱灾害防治和水资源高效利用的需求。本文考虑上游水库群的调蓄影响,基于vine copula推求其最可能和最不利洪水地区组成,计算金沙江下游梯级水库运行期设计洪水,并与非一致性洪水频率分析方法进行对比,比选汛期控制水位方案和发电效益。研究成果表明:(1)上游梯级水库调蓄作用显著削减了下游水库断面的洪水量级,向家坝水库运行期设计洪峰、3d、7d、15d和30d洪量相较天然设计成果削减约39%、36.6%、35.1%、26.0%和15.7%。(2)维持原防洪标准不变,乌东德、白鹤滩、溪洛渡和向家坝的汛期控制水位可抬升至958.56 m、794.67m、568.75 m和373.42m,6-9月平均可增发电量24.3亿kW·h。(3)最可能/最不利地区组成法计算结果与非一致性频率分析计算结果无显著差异,但能详细反映各级水库防洪调度过程。研究成果可为金沙江下游梯级水库运行调度提供理论和技术支撑,实现洪水资源化利用。

       

      Abstract: The joint operation of upstream reservoirs has changed the natural inflow and sedimentation of the cascade reservoirs in the lower Jinsha River. The original design floods and flood control water levels (FCWL) cannot meet the demands of flood-drought prevention and efficient utilization of water resources in the new era. To quantify the impact of upstream reservoir regulation, the most likely flood regional composition (MLFRC) method and the most unfavorable flood regional composition (MUFRC) method are modified based on vine copula. The design floods of cascade reservoirs in the lower Jinsha River are estimated and compared with the non-stational flood frequency analysis (NFFA) method, and FCWLs and hydropower generation benefit are also reevaluated. The results show that: (1) The regulation of upstream cascade reservoirs has significantly reduced the design floods, and the 1000-year design peak discharge, 3d, 7d, 15d, and 30d flood volumes in the operation period of Xiangjiaba reservoir are reduced by about 39%, 36.6%, 35.1%, 26.0%, and 15.7% compared to natural design values. (2) Maintaining the original flood control standards unchanged, the FCWLs of Wudongde, Baihetan, Xiluodu, and Xiangjiaba reservoirs can be raised to 958.56 m, 794.67 m, 568.75 m, and 373.42 m, with an average additional power generation of 2.43 billion kW·h from June to September. (3) The results of the MLFRC and MUFRC have no significant difference from that of NFFA, but can reflect the flood control and scheduling process of upstream reservoirs in detail. The research can provide theoretical and technique support for the operation of cascade reservoirs in the lower Jinsha River.

       

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