长江流域高温事件识别中两类阈值方法对比研究

    Comparison of Two Threshold Based Methods for Identifying Regional High Temperature Events in Yangtze River Basin

    • 摘要: 全球气候变化背景下极端高温事件频发加剧了流域水资源供需矛盾。为客观揭示长9江流域高温事件时空分布特征及其演变趋势,本研究利用长江流域735个国家气象观测站1961—2022年逐日最高气温资料,分别采用绝对阈值法和相对阈值法,识别长江上游、中下游暖季区域性高温事件,并从发生频次、时空分布、综合强度等多个维度对比分析两类阈值方法的适用性与敏感性。结果表明:①绝对阈值法在长江上游和中下游分别识别出299次和383次高温事件,相对阈值法在长江上游和中下游分别识别出423次和410次高温事件,相对阈值法对上游高温事件更敏感。②绝对阈值法识别出的高温事件集中于7—8月,相对15阈值法识别出的高温事件在5—9月分布较均匀,绝对阈值法对极端高温时段响应更灵敏。③绝对阈值法识别的高温事件持续时间在7.1~8.7天,相对阈值法识别的高温事件平均持续时间仅5.4天,绝对阈值法对高温过程持续时间识别更稳定。④两种方法识别出的典型高温年一致率在60%以上,均揭示出近60年来区域性高温事件频次和强度呈显著上升趋势,21世纪以来极端性显著增强,相对阈值法对气候变化响应更敏感,绝对阈值法对高强度极端高温事件刻画更突出。成果可为流域高温事件研究和应对提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Under the background of global warming, the frequent occurrence of extreme high-temperature events has intensified the contradiction between water supply and demand in river basins. To objectively reveal the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and evolution trends of high-temperature events in the Yangtze River Basin, this study used daily maximum temperature data from 735 national meteorological stations in the basin from 1961 to 2022. Regional high-temperature events during the warm season in the Upper (UPYR) and Middle-Lower (MLYR) reaches were identified using both absolute and relative threshold methods. A comparative analysis of the applicability and sensitivity of the two methods was conducted from multiple dimensions, including frequency, spatiotemporal distribution, and comprehensive intensity. The main conclusions are: ①There were 299 and 383 high-temperature events in UPYR and MLYR detected by the absolute threshold method, while 423 and 410 events were identified by the relative threshold method. The relative threshold method exhibits higher sensitivity to high-temperature events in UPYR. ②Absolute threshold-based events concentrate in midsummer (July–August), whereas relative threshold-based events are more evenly distributed across May–September. The absolute threshold demonstrates stronger responsiveness to extreme high-temperature periods. ③ The duration of events identified by the absolute threshold ranges from 7.1 to 8.7 days, compared to an average of 5.4 days for relative threshold events, indicating greater stability in capturing prolonged heat processes via the absolute threshold. ④ Both methods show over 60% consistency in identifying typical high-temperature years and reveal a significant upward trend in frequency and intensity of high-temperature events over the past six decades, with extremeness becoming notably more pronounced since the 21st century. Nevertheless, the relative threshold is more sensitive to climate change responses, while the absolute threshold better characterizes high-intensity extreme heat events. The findings provide a scientific basis for advancing research and formulating mitigation strategies pertaining to extreme high-temperature events in the basin.

       

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