长江上游气象与水文旱涝急转演变特征及其关联性

    Evolutionary characteristics and association analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought-to-flood abrupt alternations in the Upper Yangtze River basin

    • 摘要: 为应对变化气候下长江上游流域水资源管理的挑战,本文选取1959—2022年长江上游流域月降水和月径流数据,分别计算气象与水文旱涝急转指数,识别旱涝急转事件的发生频次、强度和年内分布特征,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验分析旱涝急转事件的时间演变特征,通过相关系数、最大互信息系数和因子重要性方法评估长江上游流域气象与水文旱涝急转事件的关联性。结果表明:(1)1959—2022年长江上游流域长周期气象与水文旱涝急转事件发生频次及强度较为一致,短周期水文旱涝急转事件发生频次较气象旱涝急转事件减少56%,且汛期多发特征更明显;(2)汛期长周期气象与水文旱涝急转事件均呈现向“涝转旱”的演变趋势,这与汛期短周期旱涝急转事件中6月份向“旱转涝”、8月份向“涝转旱”的发展趋势具有一致性;(3)长江上游水文旱涝急转受各子流域的气象旱涝急转的影响不同,长周期水文旱涝急转与大面积子流域(雅砻江、嘉陵江、向家坝—寸滩区间和金沙江上游)的相关性更大,短周期水文旱涝急转与临近三峡水库子流域(嘉陵江、向家坝—寸滩区间和寸滩—三峡区间)的关联性更强。研究结果可为长江上游流域的防洪减灾与水资源适应性管理提供重要的科学依据。

       

      Abstract: To address water resource management challenges in the Upper Yangtze River basin under changing climate, this study investigated drought-flood abrupt alternation events based on monthly precipitation and runoff data from 1959 to 2022. Meteorological and hydrological drought-flood abrupt alternation indices were calculated to identify the occurrence frequency, intensity, and intra-annual distribution characteristics of events. The Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to evaluate the temporal evolution, while correlation coefficients, mutual information coefficients, and factor importance analysis were used to assess the associations between meteorological and hydrological drought-flood abrupt alternations. The results indicate that: (1) From 1959 to 2022, long-term meteorological and hydrological drought-flood abrupt alternation events in the Upper Yangtze River basin exhibited consistent occurrence frequency and intensity. However, short-term hydrological events occurred 56% less frequently than meteorological events, with a more pronounced intra-annual concentration during the flood season; (2) Both long-term meteorological and hydrological drought-flood abrupt alternation events during the flood season displayed a tendency toward “flood-to-drought” trend. This is consistent with the “drought-to-flood” trend in June and “flood-to-drought” trend in August . (3)The long- and short-term hydrological drought-flood abrupt alternations are influenced by meteorological drought-flood abrupt alternations of different sub-basins. Large-area sub-basins (Yalong River, Jialing River, Xiangjiaban-Cuntan interval, and Upper Jinsha River basin) exhibited strong correlations between long-term meteorological and hydrological drought-flood abrupt events, whereas associations between short-term events were stronger in sub-basins near the Three Gorges Reservoir (Jialing River, Xiangjiaba-Cuntan interval and Cuntan-Three Gorges interval basin). The research results can provide important scientific basis for flood control and disaster reduction and adaptive water resource management in the upper Yangtze River basin.

       

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