Abstract:
Compound dry-hot events have caused severe socioeconomic and environmental losses. Considering the negative feedback relationship between summer mean temperature and precipitation, this study developed a Compound Dry-Hot Index (CDHI) based on the Copula method, integrating the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Temperature Index (STI), and employed path analysis combined with gridded data to assess the driving factors of dry-hot intensity changes in the Dongting Lake Basin during 1901-2022 summer periods. Key findings indicate: The Copula model revealed strong tail dependence between summer droughts (characterized by SPEI) and heatwaves (characterized by STI), which significantly intensified compound dry-hot events in the northwestern and southern basin regions; The spatial extent of severe CDHI-characterized compound events has shown a continuous expansion trend over the past 60 years; Path analysis demonstrated that summer temperature rise in recent decades has markedly enhanced the severity of compound events, with its contribution rate becoming substantially more prominent compared to the previous 60-year period, reflecting significant changes in the warming effect's impact mechanism. This study advances the understanding of compound dry-hot event intensification and its climatic drivers. The results not only improve risk assessment of compound extremes but also provide scientific support for developing targeted climate change adaptation strategies.