洞庭湖流域复合干热事件时空变化和归因分析

    Temporal and Spatial Changes and Attribution Analysis of Compound Dry-hot Events in Dongting Lake Basind

    • 摘要: 复合干热事件给人类社会和自然环境造成了严重的社会经济损失。考虑到夏季平均气温与降水量之间存在负反馈关系,本研究基于Copula方法构建了综合考虑夏季标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)与标准化温度指数(STI)的复合干热指数(CDHI),并采用CDHI结合路径分析法,评估了1901-2022年夏季洞庭湖流域复合干热强度变化的驱动因素,结合格点化数据对其时空特征进行解析。Copula模型拟合结果表明洞庭湖流域夏季干旱事件和STI表征的高温热浪事件之间存在较强的尾部依赖性特征一定程度上加剧了流域西北和南部地区复合干热强度;同时在近60年以来以CDHI表征的重度复合干热事件影响范围呈现不断扩大趋势;路径分析结果表明流域近60年夏季气温升高对复合干热事件严重程度的影响明显增强,其贡献率较前60年更为突出,表明升温效应对复合干热事件的影响机制在近几十年发生了显著变化。本研究深化了对复合干热事件强度加剧及其气候驱动因素的认识,研究成果不仅有助于改进复合极端事件的风险评估,还能为制定针对性的气候变化适应策略提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Compound dry-hot events have caused severe socioeconomic and environmental losses. Considering the negative feedback relationship between summer mean temperature and precipitation, this study developed a Compound Dry-Hot Index (CDHI) based on the Copula method, integrating the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Temperature Index (STI), and employed path analysis combined with gridded data to assess the driving factors of dry-hot intensity changes in the Dongting Lake Basin during 1901-2022 summer periods. Key findings indicate: The Copula model revealed strong tail dependence between summer droughts (characterized by SPEI) and heatwaves (characterized by STI), which significantly intensified compound dry-hot events in the northwestern and southern basin regions; The spatial extent of severe CDHI-characterized compound events has shown a continuous expansion trend over the past 60 years; Path analysis demonstrated that summer temperature rise in recent decades has markedly enhanced the severity of compound events, with its contribution rate becoming substantially more prominent compared to the previous 60-year period, reflecting significant changes in the warming effect's impact mechanism. This study advances the understanding of compound dry-hot event intensification and its climatic drivers. The results not only improve risk assessment of compound extremes but also provide scientific support for developing targeted climate change adaptation strategies.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回