陆水流域雨水情监测预报“三道防线”耦合贯通实践

    Three lines of defense integration in Lu River Basin: implementation and application

    • 摘要: 在全球气候变暖背景下极端暴雨洪水频发,传统雨水情监测预报体系面临严峻挑战。陆水流域是长江中游防洪重点区域,本研究以其为试点,构建“天空地水工”一体化监测感知体系,耦合测雨雷达反演、降雨融合预报、纳雨能力计算、分布式水文模拟、水动力耦合计算及正逆正调度优化等模型,形成贯通“云中雨-落地雨-河中洪水”的雨水情监测预报“三道防线”耦合应用,实现洪水全链条精准预报与主动防控。在2025年陆水流域强降雨事件中,成功将陆水水库入库洪峰预报误差控制在3%以内,洪水过程预报确定性系数达0.94,并提前3小时研判强降水过程结束时间,通过比选推荐水库优化调度方案,保障了陆水水库安全运行,实现了调度决策从被动应对到主动研判的转变,为流域防洪调度科学提前决策提供了有力支持。

       

      Abstract: Under global warming, the increasing frequency of extreme rainstorm-induced floods poses severe challenges to traditional rainfall and water regime monitoring and forecasting systems. Focusing on the Lushui River Basin, a key flood control area in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, this study established an integrated "sky-space-earth-water-project" monitoring and perception system in the basin, coupling hydrometeorological radar retrieval, rainfall fusion forecasting, rainwater retention capacity assessment, distributed hydrological modeling, hydrodynamic coupling computation, and forward-reverse-forward optimization. The resulting Three-Lines-of-Defense framework spans "cloud precipitation-ground rainfall-riverine floods", enabling end-to-end flood forecasting and proactive control. During the 2025 extreme rainfall event, this approach successfully limited the forecast error for the Lushui Reservoir's inflow flood peak to within 3%, achieved a deterministic coefficient of 0.94 for the flood process forecast, and accurately predicted the end time of the heavy precipitation event three hours in advance. By comparing and recommending optimized reservoir operation schemes, it ensured the safe operation of the Lushui Reservoir. This achievement marks a shift in operational decision-making from passive response to active judgment, providing robust support for scientific and early decision-making in basin flood control operations.

       

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